Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,072.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes amid a massive volume spike, sharp price move, and cross-market positioning on related contracts.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $264k lifetime.
  • They bought $6.7k of Yes at 90¢ while also positioning across 3 related markets with $18.9k total exposure.
  • The market saw a 620x volume spike and Yes jumped 56 points in a day, suggesting strong momentum behind the move.

$6,701 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

82% cross-market sharp

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with $3.4M total deployed.
  • They bought Yes at 48¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢.

$1,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

82% cross-market sharp

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with $3.4M total deployed.
  • They bought Yes at 48¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢.

$2,216 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6c64...ac0b Outcome 75982940, $5,000
  2. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 75982940, $4,022
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 75982940, $3,449
  4. 0xe782...bb92 Outcome 75982940, $3,000
  5. 0xb524...9eb7 Outcome 75982940, $2,983
  6. 0x1fce...a7c8 Outcome 75982940, $2,125 (79% win rate)
  7. 0x645a...fd84 Outcome 75982940, $1,452 (63% win rate)
  8. 0x215a...254c Outcome 75982940, $1,161
  9. 0xfe95...4074 Outcome 75982940, $1,004
  10. 0x27e0...b09b Outcome 75982940, $1,000

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

ResolvedWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$10,072 tracked3 signalsTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

66d ago

$6,701 on Yes at 90¢

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

68d ago

$1,155 on Yes at 48¢

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

69d ago

$2,216 on Yes at 48¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…