Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,072.
Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes amid a massive volume spike, sharp price move, and cross-market positioning on related contracts.
- This bettor has won 71% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $264k lifetime.
- They bought $6.7k of Yes at 90¢ while also positioning across 3 related markets with $18.9k total exposure.
- The market saw a 620x volume spike and Yes jumped 56 points in a day, suggesting strong momentum behind the move.
$6,701 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
82% cross-market sharp
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with $3.4M total deployed.
- They bought Yes at 48¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢.
$1,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
82% cross-market sharp
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with $3.4M total deployed.
- They bought Yes at 48¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢.
$2,216 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x6c64...ac0b — Outcome 75982940, $5,000
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 75982940, $4,022
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 75982940, $3,449
- 0xe782...bb92 — Outcome 75982940, $3,000
- 0xb524...9eb7 — Outcome 75982940, $2,983
- 0x1fce...a7c8 — Outcome 75982940, $2,125 (79% win rate)
- 0x645a...fd84 — Outcome 75982940, $1,452 (63% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 75982940, $1,161
- 0xfe95...4074 — Outcome 75982940, $1,004
- 0x27e0...b09b — Outcome 75982940, $1,000
Related Theses
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran ceasefire date arbitrage
Covers 5 related markets
