Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $108,155.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven event specialist buys NO

A high-volume geopolitical market drew a sizable NO bet from a proven cross-market specialist with 1,025 resolved bets, 66% win rate, and a long history trading related event markets.

  • This bettor has 1,025 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $277k lifetime.
  • They have traded 46 markets across 35 events, including 5 markets in this same event, which suggests a developed thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought NO at 87¢ in a liquid market after a 35-point one-day drop in YES, backing the market's recent move with real size.

$3,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

96% win-rate event trader

A proven 96% win-rate trader with activity across 205 related markets just bought No in this US-Iran meeting market, making this a strong follow signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades with a $67k profit across 196 settled bets.
  • They have traded 205 markets across 152 events, which suggests a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
  • They bought No at 87¢, implying a high-confidence view that no official US-Iran meeting happens by April 28.

$1,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Serial event trader presses NO

A highly active cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is pressing the same geopolitical event across 10 related markets, and this trade adds fresh conviction on No despite only a small move in a liquid market.

  • This bettor has 1,082 resolved trades, a 57% win rate, and is up $111k overall.
  • They have put $79k across 10 markets tied to the same US-Iran event, showing a clear event-wide thesis.
  • This was a fresh buy of No at 77¢, implying they still see the meeting as less likely than the market had priced.

$1,859 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable event specialist

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader reopened a sizable No position in a geopolitics market at 53¢ and the market has already moved strongly in their favor to 64¢.

  • This wallet has 1,081 resolved bets and is up $112k, with a pattern of trading across 66 related event markets.
  • They bought No at 53¢ and the market is now 64¢, so the trade is already up about 11 points.
  • They have traded 10 markets tied to this same event for $74.5k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$3,984 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Sharp event-thesis bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is building a broader 5-market thesis around the same event, making this small single-leg add worth watching despite the liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
  • They have put nearly $80k across 5 related markets in the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 59¢, implying they saw meaningful value even after the market had already moved.

$2,889 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

87% winner, 4-market thesis

Profitable high-win-rate wallet is building a broader event thesis across four related US-Iran markets, making this a followable directional bet despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $125k lifetime
  • They have put $37.6k across 4 related US-Iran markets, pointing to a coordinated event view
  • Bought Yes at 62¢ before the market moved to 64¢, suggesting they saw the odds as too low

$1,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

87% win-rate thesis trader

A high-win-rate wallet with an 87% record is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis and just bought Yes at 58¢ after a major price surge.

  • This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up about $124.8k lifetime.
  • They have wagered $40.3k across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 58¢ after this market jumped 44.5% in a day, showing conviction even after the move.

$4,042 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

87% win-rate event bettor

An 87% win-rate bettor put nearly $12k into Yes across four related US-Iran meeting markets, signaling a broader event-level thesis despite buying into a fast-moving market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets and is up about $121k lifetime
  • They placed nearly $12k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a clear thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • The market jumped 41.5 points in a day, so this looks like a sharp trader willing to keep buying into major momentum

$11,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

4-wallet Iran meeting cluster

Four wallets with strong trading histories piled into Yes around 61-64¢ during a 37x volume surge, and the market has already repriced sharply higher to 71¢.

  • Four wallets bought Yes in a tight burst for $25k, including bettors with 77% and 82% win rates.
  • They entered at 61-64¢ and the market is already up to 71¢ after a 37x volume spike and a 42-point one-day jump.
  • Several of these wallets trade multiple related Iran markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$25,033 on Yes

New wallet caught the drop

A repeatedly flagged new wallet bought No at 45¢ just before this market collapsed to 23¢, suggesting strong conviction and unusually good timing on a major geopolitical market.

  • This new wallet has already been flagged 12 times and has put nearly $30k to work despite being very new.
  • They bought No at 45¢, and the market now sits near 23¢ after a 48-point daily move.
  • The trade landed during a 29.6x volume spike in a high-attention geopolitics market, which adds weight to the timing.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 32540513, $52,692 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x88b2...f7a2 Outcome 32540513, $14,829
  3. 0x7e3c...0505 Outcome 32540513, $10,679
  4. 0x2503...9be5 Outcome 32540513, $10,651
  5. 0x5c90...79f4 Outcome 32540513, $8,973 (33% win rate)
  6. 0xc3e4...5bf6 Outcome 32540513, $8,766 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 32540513, $8,000 (44% win rate)
  8. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 32540513, $5,000 (86% win rate)
  9. 0xbb8e...b243 Outcome 32540513, $3,760 (69% win rate)
  10. 0x5715...1616 Outcome 32540513, $3,662 (36% win rate)

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$108,155 tracked19 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$3,049 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$1,030 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$1,859 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$3,984 on No at 53¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$2,889 on Yes at 59¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$1,382 on Yes at 62¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$4,042 on Yes at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$11,920 on Yes at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$25,033 on Yes at 63¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$2,500 on No at 45¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$1,277 on No at 42¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$1,193 on Yes at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$1,218 on Yes at 61¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$15,254 on Yes at 21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$1,335 on Yes at 47¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

27d ago

$24,567 on No at 47¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$1,291 on Yes at 49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$1,204 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

28d ago

$3,128 on No at 81¢

Related Theses