Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $108,155.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Proven event specialist buys NO
A high-volume geopolitical market drew a sizable NO bet from a proven cross-market specialist with 1,025 resolved bets, 66% win rate, and a long history trading related event markets.
- This bettor has 1,025 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $277k lifetime.
- They have traded 46 markets across 35 events, including 5 markets in this same event, which suggests a developed thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought NO at 87¢ in a liquid market after a 35-point one-day drop in YES, backing the market's recent move with real size.
$3,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
96% win-rate event trader
A proven 96% win-rate trader with activity across 205 related markets just bought No in this US-Iran meeting market, making this a strong follow signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades with a $67k profit across 196 settled bets.
- They have traded 205 markets across 152 events, which suggests a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
- They bought No at 87¢, implying a high-confidence view that no official US-Iran meeting happens by April 28.
$1,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Serial event trader presses NO
A highly active cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is pressing the same geopolitical event across 10 related markets, and this trade adds fresh conviction on No despite only a small move in a liquid market.
- This bettor has 1,082 resolved trades, a 57% win rate, and is up $111k overall.
- They have put $79k across 10 markets tied to the same US-Iran event, showing a clear event-wide thesis.
- This was a fresh buy of No at 77¢, implying they still see the meeting as less likely than the market had priced.
$1,859 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable event specialist
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader reopened a sizable No position in a geopolitics market at 53¢ and the market has already moved strongly in their favor to 64¢.
- This wallet has 1,081 resolved bets and is up $112k, with a pattern of trading across 66 related event markets.
- They bought No at 53¢ and the market is now 64¢, so the trade is already up about 11 points.
- They have traded 10 markets tied to this same event for $74.5k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$3,984 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Sharp event-thesis bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is building a broader 5-market thesis around the same event, making this small single-leg add worth watching despite the liquid market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
- They have put nearly $80k across 5 related markets in the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 59¢, implying they saw meaningful value even after the market had already moved.
$2,889 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
87% winner, 4-market thesis
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is building a broader event thesis across four related US-Iran markets, making this a followable directional bet despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $125k lifetime
- They have put $37.6k across 4 related US-Iran markets, pointing to a coordinated event view
- Bought Yes at 62¢ before the market moved to 64¢, suggesting they saw the odds as too low
$1,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
87% win-rate thesis trader
A high-win-rate wallet with an 87% record is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis and just bought Yes at 58¢ after a major price surge.
- This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up about $124.8k lifetime.
- They have wagered $40.3k across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 58¢ after this market jumped 44.5% in a day, showing conviction even after the move.
$4,042 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
87% win-rate event bettor
An 87% win-rate bettor put nearly $12k into Yes across four related US-Iran meeting markets, signaling a broader event-level thesis despite buying into a fast-moving market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets and is up about $121k lifetime
- They placed nearly $12k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a clear thesis rather than a one-off bet
- The market jumped 41.5 points in a day, so this looks like a sharp trader willing to keep buying into major momentum
$11,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
4-wallet Iran meeting cluster
Four wallets with strong trading histories piled into Yes around 61-64¢ during a 37x volume surge, and the market has already repriced sharply higher to 71¢.
- Four wallets bought Yes in a tight burst for $25k, including bettors with 77% and 82% win rates.
- They entered at 61-64¢ and the market is already up to 71¢ after a 37x volume spike and a 42-point one-day jump.
- Several of these wallets trade multiple related Iran markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$25,033 on Yes
New wallet caught the drop
A repeatedly flagged new wallet bought No at 45¢ just before this market collapsed to 23¢, suggesting strong conviction and unusually good timing on a major geopolitical market.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 12 times and has put nearly $30k to work despite being very new.
- They bought No at 45¢, and the market now sits near 23¢ after a 48-point daily move.
- The trade landed during a 29.6x volume spike in a high-attention geopolitics market, which adds weight to the timing.
$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 32540513, $52,692 (69% win rate)
- 0x88b2...f7a2 — Outcome 32540513, $14,829
- 0x7e3c...0505 — Outcome 32540513, $10,679
- 0x2503...9be5 — Outcome 32540513, $10,651
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Outcome 32540513, $8,973 (33% win rate)
- 0xc3e4...5bf6 — Outcome 32540513, $8,766 (69% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 32540513, $8,000 (44% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 32540513, $5,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 32540513, $3,760 (69% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 32540513, $3,662 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal lands late April
Covers 6 related markets
Oil rallies past $115
Covers 4 related markets
