Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,212.

Categories: Brazil, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A proven bettor with 86% wins on 37 resolved trades and strong returns is adding $6,900 to an existing Yes position.

This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved trades and is up nearly $24,000.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in it to over $24,000.
The Yes shares are trading at 69¢, near the bettor’s 68¢ average entry.

$2,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A proven bettor with 86% wins on 37 resolved trades and strong returns is adding $6,900 to an existing Yes position.

This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved trades and is up nearly $24,000.
They added $6,900 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in it to over $24,000.
The Yes shares are trading at 69¢, near the bettor’s 68¢ average entry.

$6,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A profitable, high-volume trader added about $18.2K to an existing Yes position during a sharp volume spike, making this a notable conviction trade despite limited evidence that the win rate beats typical entry odds.

A bettor with 292 resolved bets is up about $676K lifetime and has a 90% win rate.
They added about $18.2K in three Yes buys, building on an existing position of roughly $29K.
The trades coincided with a 156× historical volume spike; the weighted entry was about 71¢.

$18,197 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly profitable, high-volume trader with a 90% record is adding a sizable Yes position in a thinly traded market despite the odds having recently fallen.

A bettor with 292 resolved trades has a 90% win rate and is up $675,659 overall.
They added $10,788 to an existing Yes position as the market’s odds fell from their 72¢ average entry.
The trade is over 53 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction.

$10,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Serial trader adds to large Yes position

A highly experienced trader added $8.6k to an existing Yes position, a purchase over four times the market’s 24-hour volume, though their 90% win rate is only modestly above their average winning entry price.

A bettor with 331 resolved trades and a 90% win rate added another $8,568 to their existing Yes position.
The buy was more than four times the market’s $1,884 daily volume, bringing their disclosed investment in this market to about $19,500.
Their track record is strong, but their average winning entry price is 85¢, so the historical results suggest only a modest edge over the 82–84¢ entry here.

$8,568 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%