Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,074 in smart-money activity and 1 signal for this market, including recent Yes momentum alerts; check the live market price for the current odds before trading.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,602.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$1,074 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$1,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$2,622 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$5,629 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$2,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
  • They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.

$2,483 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

3-wallet Yes momentum

Three wallets bought the same Yes side into a sharp geopolitics-market move, with clustered flow and price impact despite weak wallet track records.

  • Three wallets all bought Yes, putting $5.4K behind the same US-Iran meeting outcome.
  • Yes has surged to 81¢ after a sharp 24h move, with these trades entering as low as 45¢ and 67¢.
  • The flow spans related event markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic-news thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$5,367 on Yes

Profitable cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with a 77% record is building a large cross-market US-Iran thesis and bought No on a thin diplomacy market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 13 related markets with about $122K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • This $2K No buy is large relative to the market’s $8.2K daily volume.

$1,961 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $94,077 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x7c6a...0b8c Yes, $39,538 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x02d8...0c91 Yes, $25,016 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xbc80...3d59 Yes, $23,667 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x71ca...3501 Yes, $22,222 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $17,286 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $17,150 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xde58...f55c Yes, $11,111 (86% win rate)
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $11,109
  10. 0x4728...6426 Yes, $10,491 (75% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Crude stays rangebound through June

Covers 10 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

1dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$22,602 tracked8 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
93¢
No
7¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
54¢
13¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

23h ago

$1,074 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

1d ago

$1,127 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

1d ago

$2,622 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

1d ago

$5,629 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

1d ago

$2,340 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

2d ago

$2,483 on No at 28¢

28¢7¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

2d ago

$5,367 on Yes at 63¢

63¢93¢30¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

4d ago

$1,961 on No at 69¢

69¢7¢62¢

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June
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Crude stays rangebound through June
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
No US-Iran peace deal
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal unlikely soon
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…