Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting about U.S.-Iran relations by June 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,301 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including recent Yes momentum and elite cross-market sharp alerts. Follow the live market odds to see how traders are pricing the chance of direct U.S.-Iran diplomacy before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,806.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Brand-new geopolitics whale
A brand-new wallet is quickly deploying nearly $5k on Yes in a geopolitically sensitive market, with repeat large-bet activity totaling about $8.7k despite no resolved track record yet.
- This wallet is less than 7 hours old and has already made multiple large bets totaling $8.7k flagged activity.
- The bettor put nearly $4.9k on Yes at an average entry around 80¢, taking a sizable position in a news-sensitive diplomacy market.
- The market is liquid, but the trade is still meaningful at about 13% of available liquidity.
$4,903 on Yes
Serial cross-market Iran bettor
Serial cross-market bettor is building a broader US-Iran thesis across 8 related markets, but their long-term edge is modest and this specific No entry has moved slightly against them.
- This wallet trades across many related markets, with 68 markets across 36 events tracked.
- They have $44.8K positioned across 8 markets in this event, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This specific No buy was at 44¢ and is now around 40¢, offering a slightly better entry than the trader got.
$1,301 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$1,074 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$1,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$2,622 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$5,629 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$2,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with major cross-market political positioning bought No despite the market's big move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $746K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.35M placed across 167 related markets.
- They bought No at 28¢ after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view on the diplomatic meeting.
$2,483 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
3-wallet Yes momentum
Three wallets bought the same Yes side into a sharp geopolitics-market move, with clustered flow and price impact despite weak wallet track records.
- Three wallets all bought Yes, putting $5.4K behind the same US-Iran meeting outcome.
- Yes has surged to 81¢ after a sharp 24h move, with these trades entering as low as 45¢ and 67¢.
- The flow spans related event markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic-news thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$5,367 on Yes
Profitable cross-market bettor
Proven profitable wallet with a 77% record is building a large cross-market US-Iran thesis and bought No on a thin diplomacy market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 13 related markets with about $122K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This $2K No buy is large relative to the market’s $8.2K daily volume.
$1,961 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $49,843 (82% win rate)
- 0x7c6a...0b8c — Yes, $39,538 (67% win rate)
- 0x02d8...0c91 — Yes, $25,556 (85% win rate)
- 0xbc80...3d59 — Yes, $23,667 (100% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $22,961 (69% win rate)
- 0x71ca...3501 — Yes, $22,222 (72% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $17,094 (58% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — No, $13,174 (46% win rate)
- 0xde58...f55c — Yes, $11,111 (86% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — No, $10,000 (36% win rate)
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