Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $213,861.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster fading Yes surge
High-conviction No-side cluster is worth surfacing because it includes a very profitable 82% wallet and coordinated cross-market flow, though many Yes sells appear to be profit-taking and the market has since moved against them.
- A bettor who wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $750k bought No around 42¢.
- 15 wallets put $43k on the No side, including 5 linked wallets sharing the same funder.
- The market moved hard against them, with No now near 16¢, so this is a contrarian copy-trade rather than momentum.
$43,300 on No
82% serial event trader
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor is effectively buying Yes while showing a broad cross-market Iran thesis backed by a major volume spike and price move.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved markets and is up $750k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related markets in this event with $112k at stake, showing a broad thesis.
- Yes is up 50 points today with a 17x volume spike, supporting the same direction.
$1,310 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
New whale chasing breakout
New 6-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing large Yes bets into a fast-moving Iran ceasefire market alongside a 17x volume spike and major price breakout.
- A 6-day-old wallet has now triggered 6 large-bet alerts, with $13.3k flagged across positions.
- They bought Yes before and during a sharp move, including $1.7k at 55¢ before odds jumped to 84¢.
- Market volume is surging 16.9x above normal and Yes is up about 50 points in 24 hours.
$6,173 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp bettor riding Iran momentum
Sharp profitable wallet bought Yes into a major price move and volume spike on a high-stakes Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $13.6K lifetime.
- They bought $8.7K of Yes at 87¢ as the market saw a 16.9x volume spike.
- Yes has jumped about 50 points in 24h, suggesting broad momentum behind the same thesis.
$8,723 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Coordinated Yes momentum
Coordinated Yes buying across 7 wallets, a sharp upward price move, and a serial cross-market trader make this Iran ceasefire-extension bet worth surfacing.
- 7 wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $12.7k in coordinated flow.
- The Yes price jumped about 23%, with this bettor entering at 45¢ before it moved to 48¢.
- This wallet has traded 90 markets across 49 events and is up about $32.8k lifetime.
$1,787 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
7-wallet Yes surge
High composite alert driven by seven wallets buying Yes together, a repeat new-wallet buyer, and a sharp upward price move in a news-sensitive geopolitical market.
- Seven wallets bought the same Yes outcome, totaling $12.7K in one-sided flow.
- This new wallet is a repeat large-bet account with $3K+ already flagged across positions.
- Yes jumped 16 points over the day, suggesting momentum behind the ceasefire-extension thesis.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
89% winner flips No
Surfaced because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% record flipped into No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $329,670 lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 27 events and $152,846 flagged in similar positioning.
- They closed a prior Yes position and are now buying No at 65¢, signaling a clear thesis change.
$1,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
89% winning serial trader
A proven 89% win-rate wallet with $3.2M lifetime profit bought No and has a large serial cross-market track record on related event markets.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $3.2M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.18M deployed across 226 markets.
- They bought No at 84¢ while also positioning across 3 related markets in this event.
$3,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp serial event trader
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with major cross-market positioning bought Yes, though the market has since moved against the entry.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $591K lifetime.
- They are heavily active across this event: 11 related markets and about $283K positioned.
- This Yes buy was at 24¢, while the market is now around 14¢, so the same thesis is available cheaper than their entry.
$1,120 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate is buying No while positioning across 8 related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $306K lifetime.
- They have traded 8 related markets in this event, totaling $93.6K of cross-market positioning.
- They bought No at 72¢, suggesting confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement announcement happens by the deadline.
$2,471 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xeed5...1a33 — No, $170,880 (93% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $114,507 (73% win rate)
- 0x1682...26ca — No, $40,197 (71% win rate)
- 0x9e7e...3e1d — No, $20,853 (66% win rate)
- 0x7670...4595 — No, $10,030
- 0x6000...f302 — No, $10,000 (93% win rate)
- 0xab12...3683 — No, $9,272
- 0xf0d5...c665 — No, $8,241 (95% win rate)
- 0x6e13...2126 — No, $5,211 (89% win rate)
- 0x32a2...42ea — No, $5,000
Related Theses
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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