Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $213,861.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster fading Yes surge
High-conviction No-side cluster is worth surfacing because it includes a very profitable 82% wallet and coordinated cross-market flow, though many Yes sells appear to be profit-taking and the market has since moved against them.
- A bettor who wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $750k bought No around 42¢.
- 15 wallets put $43k on the No side, including 5 linked wallets sharing the same funder.
- The market moved hard against them, with No now near 16¢, so this is a contrarian copy-trade rather than momentum.
$43,300 on No
82% serial event trader
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor is effectively buying Yes while showing a broad cross-market Iran thesis backed by a major volume spike and price move.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved markets and is up $750k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related markets in this event with $112k at stake, showing a broad thesis.
- Yes is up 50 points today with a 17x volume spike, supporting the same direction.
$1,310 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
New whale chasing breakout
New 6-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing large Yes bets into a fast-moving Iran ceasefire market alongside a 17x volume spike and major price breakout.
- A 6-day-old wallet has now triggered 6 large-bet alerts, with $13.3k flagged across positions.
- They bought Yes before and during a sharp move, including $1.7k at 55¢ before odds jumped to 84¢.
- Market volume is surging 16.9x above normal and Yes is up about 50 points in 24 hours.
$6,173 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp bettor riding Iran momentum
Sharp profitable wallet bought Yes into a major price move and volume spike on a high-stakes Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $13.6K lifetime.
- They bought $8.7K of Yes at 87¢ as the market saw a 16.9x volume spike.
- Yes has jumped about 50 points in 24h, suggesting broad momentum behind the same thesis.
$8,723 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Coordinated Yes momentum
Coordinated Yes buying across 7 wallets, a sharp upward price move, and a serial cross-market trader make this Iran ceasefire-extension bet worth surfacing.
- 7 wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $12.7k in coordinated flow.
- The Yes price jumped about 23%, with this bettor entering at 45¢ before it moved to 48¢.
- This wallet has traded 90 markets across 49 events and is up about $32.8k lifetime.
$1,787 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
7-wallet Yes surge
High composite alert driven by seven wallets buying Yes together, a repeat new-wallet buyer, and a sharp upward price move in a news-sensitive geopolitical market.
- Seven wallets bought the same Yes outcome, totaling $12.7K in one-sided flow.
- This new wallet is a repeat large-bet account with $3K+ already flagged across positions.
- Yes jumped 16 points over the day, suggesting momentum behind the ceasefire-extension thesis.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
89% winner flips No
Surfaced because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% record flipped into No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $329,670 lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 27 events and $152,846 flagged in similar positioning.
- They closed a prior Yes position and are now buying No at 65¢, signaling a clear thesis change.
$1,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
89% winning serial trader
A proven 89% win-rate wallet with $3.2M lifetime profit bought No and has a large serial cross-market track record on related event markets.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $3.2M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.18M deployed across 226 markets.
- They bought No at 84¢ while also positioning across 3 related markets in this event.
$3,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp serial event trader
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with major cross-market positioning bought Yes, though the market has since moved against the entry.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $591K lifetime.
- They are heavily active across this event: 11 related markets and about $283K positioned.
- This Yes buy was at 24¢, while the market is now around 14¢, so the same thesis is available cheaper than their entry.
$1,120 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate is buying No while positioning across 8 related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $306K lifetime.
- They have traded 8 related markets in this event, totaling $93.6K of cross-market positioning.
- They bought No at 72¢, suggesting confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement announcement happens by the deadline.
$2,471 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xeed5...1a33 — Outcome 11302857, $170,880 (92% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 11302857, $114,507 (70% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Outcome 11302857, $60,772 (54% win rate)
- 0x1682...26ca — Outcome 11302857, $40,197 (68% win rate)
- 0x9e7e...3e1d — Outcome 11302857, $20,853 (66% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Outcome 11302857, $14,776 (62% win rate)
- 0xf284...b9f9 — Outcome 11302857, $10,030 (89% win rate)
- 0x6000...f302 — Outcome 11302857, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xab12...3683 — Outcome 11302857, $9,272
- 0xf0d5...c665 — Outcome 11302857, $8,241 (89% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
