Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $219,347.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A 2-week-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits just made another sizable directional bet on a major election market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
- This 2-week-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and is up $3.6k so far
- The trade was sizable at $8.9k and effectively buys Rafael López Aliaga Yes at 12¢
- This is a fresh bet on a major political market with deep liquidity, not routine profit-taking
$8,863 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp election trader thesis
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $3.26M P&L added a fresh $4.2k position on No in a major Peru election market, part of a broader multi-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of 1,014 resolved trades and is up $3.26M lifetime
- They have traded 117 markets across 80 events, and put $21.9k across 4 related markets in this event
- They bought No at 86¢, showing a strong view that Rafael López Aliaga is overpriced at 14%
$4,183 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
95% win-rate election bettor
A bettor with a 95% win rate and nearly $39k profit is taking a fresh directional position across related Peru election markets, making this a strong follow despite only one active trade here.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $38.7k overall
- They sold No at 79¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 21¢ on Rafael López Aliaga
- The market has also moved up 11 points in a day, suggesting momentum behind this election thesis
$19,816 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
79% win-rate election sharp
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 79% win rate is expressing a broader Peru election thesis, and this sell of Yes converts into a fresh buy of No around 84¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of 1,008 resolved trades and is up about $604k lifetime.
- They have been trading 3 Peru election markets with nearly $19.8k total, pointing to a broader event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade effectively buys No at 84¢, showing they do not see Rafael López Aliaga as the winner even after the market moved up 7 points in a day.
$1,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner reloading thesis
A proven 82% win-rate trader with strong profits is re-entering the same event complex across 7 related Peru election markets, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a random single-market bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $326,566 overall.
- They have put $228,660 across 7 Peru election markets, showing a broad event-level view instead of a one-off bet.
- This trade reopens a No position after a prior round trip, with entry at 83¢ implying they still see López Aliaga as unlikely to win.
$3,698 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market history is reopening a fresh Yes position at 17¢ in a major politics market after previously trading both sides, making this a thesis-driven re-entry worth watching.
- This bettor has made 847 resolved bets and is up $740k lifetime.
- They trade across related election markets at scale: 108 markets across 49 events for nearly $500k.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ in a liquid Peru election market, a low-price entry that implies meaningful upside if their thesis is right.
$2,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
82% win-rate election bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader is reopening exposure on this Peru election market via a sizable sell of No, which converts to a fresh buy of Yes around 17¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $299k across 65 settled markets.
- They trade heavily across related election markets: 7 markets in this event for $228k total, suggesting a broader Peru thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, a low-price entry on a liquid market that has already moved up 6 points today.
$3,282 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable new wallet pressing No
A 19-day-old wallet with strong early profits keeps placing large bets and just put another $9.4k into a liquid Peru election market by buying No at 85¢.
- This 19-day-old wallet has already made $31.6k and has been flagged 11 times for large bets.
- This is a fresh $9.4k buy on No at 85¢, showing continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The wallet is also trading multiple Peru election markets, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$9,414 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
83% winner reloading No
Proven profitable cross-market trader with an 83% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a major Peru election market as event-wide activity surged.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $304k across nearly $2.9M invested.
- They have traded 87 markets across 48 events, including 7 markets tied to this election cycle for $233k total.
- This is a fresh No position at 84¢ after previously closing an earlier stake, showing renewed conviction rather than simple profit-taking.
$3,889 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable election specialist
A highly active and profitable political trader is making a fresh $2.4k buy on this candidate after previously trading both sides, and the wallet’s broad cross-market election activity makes the new entry worth watching.
- This bettor has 847 resolved trades, a 57% win rate, and $741k in profit
- They trade heavily across election markets: 49 events, 108 markets, and nearly $497k tracked by the cross-market signal
- This is a fresh buy of Yes at 19¢ in a deep market, suggesting a renewed view after closing earlier positions
$2,435 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 25945415, $3,951,697
- 0xa6fe...2d5d — Outcome 91464516, $1,860,232
- 0x7644...7f5e — Outcome 91464516, $104,941
- 0x20ec...9df4 — Outcome 91464516, $100,515
- 0x97fc...3655 — Outcome 91464516, $72,910
- 0x8575...87fe — Outcome 91464516, $53,643
- 0x4505...62fb — Outcome 91464516, $34,662 (100% win rate)
- 0xb00c...0f71 — Outcome 91464516, $32,721 (51% win rate)
- 0x546f...8c1e — Outcome 91464516, $31,983
- 0x0922...5045 — Outcome 91464516, $31,391
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