Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,590.

Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru

Notable Trades

83% winner reloading NO

A proven profitable trader with an 83% win rate is re-entering across six related Peru election markets, suggesting a renewed event-level thesis rather than routine activity.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $273k lifetime
They have traded 76 markets across 41 events, and now placed over $50k across 6 Peru election markets
This is a fresh NO position after previously closing out this market, with entry at 79¢ in a still-liquid market

$5,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

83% winner reloading NO

A highly profitable 83% win-rate trader is reopening a sizable No position in this Peru election market as part of a broad multi-market thesis across the same event.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $273k overall
They have traded 6 markets tied to this election event and more than 75 markets overall, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
They just reopened NO at 76¢ after previously closing a NO position, showing fresh conviction even in a liquid market

$2,472 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

83% win-rate political bettor

A highly profitable 83% win-rate trader is re-entering the No side in this Peru election market as part of a broad multi-market political thesis.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $272.7k across $2.1M invested
They have bet $45.6k across 5 related markets in this event, showing a strong election thesis
This is a fresh re-entry on No at 75¢ after previously closing a No position, signaling renewed conviction

$1,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Profitable cross-market trader with an 83% win rate is re-entering the No side in a Peruvian election market after already trading multiple related markets in the same event.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $246k overall
They have bet $41k across 5 related Peru election markets, showing a broader event thesis
This is a fresh No buy at 63¢ after closing an earlier No position, with a tight 1¢ spread in a liquid market

$4,181 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%