Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,030.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor flips to NO
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
- They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
- The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.
$5,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor flips to NO
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
- They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
- The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.
$7,257 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xcb59...0a22 — Yes, $44,348 (68% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $41,355 (82% win rate)
- 0xc381...a661 — No, $32,806 (83% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — Yes, $17,903 (49% win rate)
- 0x8251...879d — No, $16,968
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $14,117 (64% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $9,419 (69% win rate)
- 0xf8fb...19dc — No, $8,970 (44% win rate)
- 0x0562...9d66 — No, $7,505 (40% win rate)
- 0xe94b...5abe — No, $7,022 (73% win rate)
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