Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,030.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
  • They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
  • The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.

$5,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
  • They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
  • The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.

$7,257 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa576...8678 Yes, $62,324
  2. 0xcb59...0a22 Yes, $46,835 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $41,355 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xc381...a661 No, $32,806 (83% win rate)
  5. 0xf5e8...9fbd No, $25,448
  6. 0x8251...879d No, $16,968
  7. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $14,117 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xf8fb...19dc No, $8,970 (44% win rate)
  9. 0x0562...9d66 No, $7,505 (40% win rate)
  10. 0xe94b...5abe No, $7,022 (73% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by June end

Covers 3 related markets

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?$17,030 tracked5 signalsOilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
89¢
77¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

7d ago

$1,265 on No at 40¢

40¢0¢40¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

8d ago

$5,589 on No at 55¢

55¢0¢55¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

8d ago

$7,257 on No at 55¢

55¢0¢55¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

11d ago

$1,719 on No at 40¢

40¢0¢40¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$1,200 on No at 40¢

40¢0¢40¢

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Iran deal by June end
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…