Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
This Polymarket asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through November 30, 2026. It resolves No if the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time; otherwise, it resolves Yes. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $3,517 in smart money and one signal, including an alert about a large bettor adding to a No position.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,984.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Seven-market Iran thesis, adding to No
The trader adds to a substantial existing No position and has positioned across seven related markets, though their record is not notably strong.
- The trader already holds about $49,000 in No and added another $4,000 at 62¢.
- They have traded across seven related markets, with about $109,000 in combined activity.
- Their 48% win rate is not a proven edge, so the signal rests mainly on the concentrated position.
$1,254 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable trader in seven-wallet cluster
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader is selling Yes, while seven linked wallets and substantial activity across six related markets support a No thesis.
- This trader is up $275,437 across 347 resolved bets and is positioning against a continued ceasefire.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have traded about $1,339, with roughly $90,948 across six markets in the same event.
- The trader sold Yes at 40¢, equivalent to buying No at 60¢.
$1,339 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-market Iran thesis, adding to No
The trader adds to a substantial existing No position and has positioned across seven related markets, though their record is not notably strong.
- The trader already holds about $49,000 in No and added another $4,000 at 62¢.
- They have traded across seven related markets, with about $109,000 in combined activity.
- Their 48% win rate is not a proven edge, so the signal rests mainly on the concentrated position.
$1,548 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Seven-market Iran thesis, adding to No
The trader adds to a substantial existing No position and has positioned across seven related markets, though their record is not notably strong.
- The trader already holds about $49,000 in No and added another $4,000 at 62¢.
- They have traded across seven related markets, with about $109,000 in combined activity.
- Their 48% win rate is not a proven edge, so the signal rests mainly on the concentrated position.
$3,932 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Seven-market Iran thesis, adding to No
The trader adds to a substantial existing No position and has positioned across seven related markets, though their record is not notably strong.
- The trader already holds about $49,000 in No and added another $4,000 at 62¢.
- They have traded across seven related markets, with about $109,000 in combined activity.
- Their 48% win rate is not a proven edge, so the signal rests mainly on the concentrated position.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
New wallet makes a $12K No bet
A just-created wallet has built a $12,351 No position amid a sharp volume spike, though it has no track record yet.
- A wallet created 21 minutes ago has invested $12,351 betting the ceasefire will not continue through November 30.
- Trading activity was 65.6 times the historical average, while the market has recently moved toward No.
- The wallet has no resolved positions yet, so there is no track record to confirm its edge.
$1,526 on No
New wallet makes a $12K No bet
A just-created wallet has built a $12,351 No position amid a sharp volume spike, though it has no track record yet.
- A wallet created 21 minutes ago has invested $12,351 betting the ceasefire will not continue through November 30.
- Trading activity was 65.6 times the historical average, while the market has recently moved toward No.
- The wallet has no resolved positions yet, so there is no track record to confirm its edge.
$1,471 on No
Serial trader adds to No position
A serial cross-market trader added $2,835 to an existing No position as No rose about 16 points, though their 59% win rate does not establish an edge at these odds.
- This trader added $2,835 to an existing $8,444 No position, signaling increased conviction.
- No rose about 16 percentage points, and the trader has positioned across 221 markets, though their 59% win rate is not clearly above the odds they typically pay.
$4,461 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Funded cluster buying Yes
Three wallets from a larger funded cluster bought Yes for $7,689, with supporting cross-market activity and a market price rising from their entry near 40¢.
- Three wallets bought Yes for $7,689, and seven wallets in the wider cluster share a funder.
- One bettor added to an existing $14,878 Yes position, showing continued conviction.
- The price has risen to 46¢ from entries around 40–41¢, alongside an 8.5% daily gain.
$7,689 on Yes
Serial trader adds to No position
A serial cross-market trader added $2,835 to an existing No position as No rose about 16 points, though their 59% win rate does not establish an edge at these odds.
- This trader added $2,835 to an existing $8,444 No position, signaling increased conviction.
- No rose about 16 percentage points, and the trader has positioned across 221 markets, though their 59% win rate is not clearly above the odds they typically pay.
$2,835 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0xf94c...59dc — Yes, $41,954 (85% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — No, $40,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $34,518 (47% win rate)
- 0xc9b7...7984 — Yes, $26,236 (58% win rate)
- 0x6000...f302 — No, $21,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x09cc...421a — Yes, $14,456 (72% win rate)
- 0x4949...d3b8 — No, $13,193 (77% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — No, $11,979 (58% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $11,240 (65% win rate)
- 0x2106...4dea — No, $10,003 (13% win rate)
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