Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $164,687.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
84% sharp flipped Yes
Sharp 84% lifetime bettor with strong cross-market history bought Yes before a major price move and alongside one-sided flow.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $433k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 42¢ before the market jumped to 83¢.
- Five wallets have bought the same side, with Yes up 48 percentage points recently.
$1,266 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet record is making a broader six-market Iran event thesis and effectively backing Yes by selling No.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $213k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with nearly $197k total exposure, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
- Selling No at 60¢ is equivalent to backing Yes around 40¢ while the market is near 37¢.
$2,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader is re-entering No while also deploying significant capital across related event markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $213K lifetime.
- They have traded 6 related markets in this event with about $201K total exposure.
- This is a fresh re-entry on No at 68¢ after previously closing a similar position.
$4,109 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is adding a $5.6k No bet as part of an $18.7k event-level thesis.
- This bettor has 775 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $149k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 26 events and 42 markets totaling about $1.8M.
- This looks like part of a broader event thesis, with $18.7k positioned across two related markets.
$5,634 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable whale flips Yes
Profitable high-volume wallet is reversing from a prior No position and building a cross-market Yes thesis across four related Iran markets.
- This wallet is up $1.18M lifetime across more than $74M traded.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with about $27.9K in exposure.
- After closing a larger No position, this trade is a fresh buy on Yes at 24¢.
$1,245 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
91% winner cross-market
A highly profitable 91% win-rate wallet is adding a cross-market No position, making the bettor's track record the main signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $733k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events, with $1.69M in tracked activity.
- They have $35.8k positioned across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
75% winner buying No
A proven profitable wallet with a 75% record and heavy cross-market positioning bought No at 80¢, making this a copy-worthy sharp bettor signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 353 resolved bets and is up $213K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $201K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 80¢ means they are betting Iran airspace closure is unlikely despite recent market volatility.
$4,058 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
88% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% record and positive P&L is buying No as part of a broader six-market Iran-related thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $23,938 lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $73,161 total exposure.
- Buying No at 71¢ suggests confidence that the airspace closure risk is overpriced.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
86% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and +$168.7k lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this airspace-closure market via a Yes sell.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $168.7k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 71¢, fading the market’s 30% chance of a closure.
- This is part of a cross-market position in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven cross-market bettor
A proven cross-market trader with 70% wins and $252k profit is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical event while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up $252,536 lifetime.
- They have traded 91 events and 173 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 69¢ is effectively buying Yes at 31¢ on Iran closing its airspace.
$4,903 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x0681...f713 — Yes, $337,858 (88% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $275,190 (72% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $31,701 (73% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $17,173 (79% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — Yes, $16,871 (92% win rate)
- 0xa284...49ed — Yes, $13,821 (40% win rate)
- 0x5c78...343a — Yes, $13,000
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $11,822 (76% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $10,661 (87% win rate)
- 0x88ae...809a — Yes, $10,233 (73% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz deadlines are mispriced
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal happens in May
Covers 3 related markets
Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 5 related markets
