Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by May 31, resolving Yes if there is a broad suspension or cancellation affecting commercial flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market, with recent alerts showing both Yes momentum and notable No buying.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $202,742.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
91% winner buying NO
A highly profitable 91% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the trade size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $782K lifetime.
- They have traded across 46 related markets and $1.45M in cross-market positions.
- Entry at 74¢ on No implies they see Iran airspace closure risk as overstated.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable wallets buying NO
Three profitable, high-volume wallets aligned on buying No, though the size is modest relative to this liquid market.
- Three profitable bettors are all taking the same side, with about $8.4k placed on No.
- These wallets have made about $492k combined lifetime profit across thousands of resolved trades.
- The effective entry is around 64¢, meaning they are fading the recent move toward Yes.
$8,381 on No
5-wallet Yes momentum cluster
Coordinated Yes exposure across 5 wallets, including two high-win-rate accounts exiting No, coincides with a 10-point daily move on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
- Five wallets added Yes exposure with $12.4K as the market moved up 10 points in a day.
- Two strong historical bettors with 75% and 86% win rates are among the wallets exiting No positions.
- Entry around 37¢ implies they see meaningful upside from the current 38¢ odds.
$12,358 on Yes
Profitable cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 68% resolved win rate and nearly $791k P&L is buying No on a liquid geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day move toward No.
- This bettor has won 68% of 809 resolved bets and is up about $791k lifetime.
- They have traded across 77 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 74¢ follows a sharp 1-day move away from Yes, adding to the market’s current momentum.
$3,925 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Sharp 82% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 82% track record and strong edge is buying Yes on a geopolitically plausible market after a sharp daily price drop.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $96K lifetime.
- Their wins came at average 32¢ entries, showing a strong record on lower-priced bets.
- Buying Yes at 27¢ after a 17-point daily drop suggests they see the selloff as too steep.
$4,950 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
90% winner buying NO
A highly profitable 90% win-rate wallet is buying No and has related cross-market exposure, though the trade size is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 90% of 802 resolved bets and is up $159k lifetime.
- They have $4.4k positioned across two related markets, pointing to a broader thesis.
- Entry at 75¢ aligns with recent momentum after Yes dropped 18.5% today.
$1,425 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
89% winner buying YES
A high-win-rate wallet is effectively buying Yes at 26¢ while building a broader cross-market Iran airspace thesis.
- This bettor has won 89% of resolved bets and is up $13.4K lifetime.
- They have put $16.5K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 26¢ comes after Yes dropped 20 points in a day, making this a contrarian buy.
$1,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
76% winner buying YES
A profitable 76% win-rate wallet is effectively buying Yes after taking a correlated cross-market position in an information-sensitive geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $175K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 27¢, slightly above the current 26¢ market price.
- The wallet has over $41K positioned across related Iran airspace markets.
$3,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
76% winner buying NO
A profitable 76% win-rate wallet made a $119k BUY No and has $157k positioned across related Iran airspace markets, making this a notable geopolitical conviction trade.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $175k lifetime.
- They put $119k on No, a large single bet equal to more than half of the market’s 24h volume.
- The same wallet has $157k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis against an Iran airspace closure.
$119,486 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
85% winner buying NO
Sharp 85% lifetime winner with strong cross-market history is buying No after a major move against Yes.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 40 events with $1.4M total deployed.
- The market has already moved 17 points toward No in the last day, and they are entering at 66¢.
$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $88,042 (70% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — Yes, $39,789 (100% win rate)
- 0xbf93...2fd7 — No, $36,366 (60% win rate)
- 0x01d1...12a4 — Yes, $33,795 (31% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $31,655 (69% win rate)
- 0x6418...730c — Yes, $28,859 (63% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Yes, $20,311 (22% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $20,000 (90% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $19,061 (86% win rate)
- 0xff91...a1ed — Yes, $18,333 (82% win rate)
