What does this Iran airspace closure prediction market cover?

The market covers whether Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace by the listed deadline. To resolve Yes, the closure must broadly affect commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran or a major Iranian airspace region, and it cannot be solely due to weather.

When does the Iran airspace closure market resolve?

The market is set to resolve based on whether a qualifying airspace closure occurs by May 31, 2026. If no qualifying major closure happens by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $4,000 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market. Recent alerts include sharp No buying, a high-win-rate trader buying No, a high-win-rate trader buying Yes, and a Yes momentum cluster, indicating divided positioning.

Where can I track Iran airspace closure Polymarket odds?

You can track live Polymarket odds, market movement, and smart money alerts for this Iran airspace closure market on PolySpotter.

Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Q: What counts as a “major closure” of Iranian airspace?

A major closure means a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited disruptions, isolated airport issues, or weather-only closures would not necessarily qualify.

This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by May 31, resolving Yes if there is a broad suspension or cancellation affecting commercial flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market, with recent alerts showing both Yes momentum and notable No buying.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

27 smart money signals detected, totaling $231,005.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Serial geopolitical trader

Serial cross-market bettor with a large event-specific position is buying Yes on an Iran airspace closure market, but their lifetime edge is modest.

This bettor has traded 154 events and 197 markets, with a 61% win rate across 240 resolved bets.
They have $17.8K positioned across two related markets in this event, suggesting a broader Iran airspace thesis.
Entry at 35¢ is just above the current market, implying they see meaningful upside despite only modest lifetime profit.

$2,029 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable geopolitical cluster

Four wallets, including highly profitable cross-market traders, are collectively buying Yes as the market moves up 6.5% on meaningful volume.

Four wallets put $8.3K on Yes in the same window, pushing a coordinated view on a geopolitical market.
The strongest wallet wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $418K lifetime.
Several bettors have broad cross-market history, including one with 154 events and $712K in tracked event trades.

$8,328 on Yes

Serial cross-market winner

Experienced cross-market trader with a positive 61% record is adding a $19.7k No bet as part of broader event positioning.

This bettor has traded 74 markets across 52 events and is up about $42.8k lifetime.
They put $19.7k on No at 73¢ while also positioning across a related market in the same event.
The market is liquid, but this is a sizable single bet from a trader with a positive long-term record.

$19,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

86% winner cross-market No

High-scoring cross-market positioning by an 86% winner buying No, but the small size and highly liquid market make it a moderate-strength follow signal rather than a whale conviction trade.

This bettor has won 86% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime.
They are positioning across 3 related Iran airspace markets with about $19K tracked in the same event.
Bought No at 71¢, suggesting confidence despite Yes rising 3 points today.

$1,872 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

84% cross-market sharp

Proven profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on an Iran airspace closure, with an 84% historical win rate and repeated positioning across this event.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.48M placed across 101 related markets.
Selling No at 70¢ is effectively buying Yes at 30¢, matching the current market price.

$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% cross-market sharp

Proven 84% winner with strong cross-market track record is adding a $2.1k No position in a geopolitical airspace market.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events with $1.47M in similar activity.
They have built a $36k thesis across 3 related markets, backing No here at 71¢.

$2,130 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

91% winner buying NO

A highly profitable 91% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the trade size is modest relative to market liquidity.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $782K lifetime.
They have traded across 46 related markets and $1.45M in cross-market positions.
Entry at 74¢ on No implies they see Iran airspace closure risk as overstated.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable wallets buying NO

Three profitable, high-volume wallets aligned on buying No, though the size is modest relative to this liquid market.

Three profitable bettors are all taking the same side, with about $8.4k placed on No.
These wallets have made about $492k combined lifetime profit across thousands of resolved trades.
The effective entry is around 64¢, meaning they are fading the recent move toward Yes.

$8,381 on No

Profitable wallets align Yes

Three profitable, experienced wallets are taking the Yes side together, led by an 84% winner with $418k profit and cross-market positioning across the same Iran event.

Three proven bettors are all taking the Yes side, including one who wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $418k.
The group has also positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Entry around 30–32¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current market price.

$5,162 on Yes

Profitable cross-market trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 68% resolved win rate and nearly $791k P&L is buying No on a liquid geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day move toward No.

This bettor has won 68% of 809 resolved bets and is up about $791k lifetime.
They have traded across 77 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 74¢ follows a sharp 1-day move away from Yes, adding to the market’s current momentum.

$3,925 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%