Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

32 smart money signals detected, totaling $267,784.

Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics

Notable Trades

91% serial cross-market winner

Proven cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 6¢ as part of a broader Iran-uranium event thesis.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $155k lifetime.
  • They have traded 73 related events across 125 markets, showing a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 6¢ is a long-shot bet with large upside if their geopolitical thesis is right.

$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Fresh wallet buying longshot

A 4-hour-old wallet made a repeat large bet, putting $5k on the 6¢ Yes side of a geopolitical tail-risk market.

  • A brand-new wallet is already making large bets, with $10k total flagged across repeat activity.
  • They bought Yes at 6¢ while the market is around 8¢, implying a high-upside longshot view.
  • This is a geopolitical market where informed positioning could matter more than on routine markets.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%

90% cross-market sharp

Sharp 90% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is buying a low-probability Yes outcome despite a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $153k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 72 events and 124 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Entry at 7¢ is a long-shot bet with about 14x upside if the market resolves Yes.

$2,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.66M lifetime P&L is reopening/adding exposure to a low-probability Yes thesis at 6¢ across related Iran uranium markets.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 908 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $1.66M lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.4M deployed across 78 related-event markets.
  • Entry at 6¢ is a cheap asymmetric bet, implying they see more upside than the market’s current 6% odds.

$8,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

$1.8M sharp re-enters Yes

Proven sharp wallet with 77% win rate and $1.8M lifetime profit is re-entering a low-probability Yes position across related Iran uranium markets.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M lifetime.
  • They have already traded this market heavily, with $88k previously invested on Yes.
  • Buying at 7¢ gives a high-upside entry if they are right about a policy or military development.

$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial sharp buying long-shot YES

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is taking a small but notable long-shot YES position at 8¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.2M lifetime.
  • They have traded across 166 markets and $4.4M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
  • Entry at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with over 12x upside if the market resolves Yes.

$3,907 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

$1M-profit cross-market bettor

Profitable $1M lifetime wallet is making a cross-market geopolitical bet, though size is modest relative to this liquid market.

  • This bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
  • They are building a cross-market thesis in the same event, with about $3.7K positioned across 2 related markets.
  • Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside bet if the uranium transfer scenario becomes more likely.

$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

90% serial cross-market bettor

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved-bet record is taking a small but notable 10¢ Yes position on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 157 resolved bets and is up about $155k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 71 events and 122 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 10¢ implies a long-shot view that the market is underpricing the chance of US possession.

$2,222 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

90% serial cross-market bettor

A highly active cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate is taking a fresh $3k longshot Yes position on a liquid geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 90% of resolved markets, with 141 wins and $155k in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.95M placed across 121 markets in 70 events.
  • Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside thesis if the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

$1M-profit cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is making a small but thesis-driven cross-market bet on a geopolitical outcome at long odds.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 1,068 resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
  • They have put $3.9k across two related Iran uranium markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Entry at 9¢ offers long-shot upside if the US confirms possession by the deadline.

$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a85...fe9d Outcome 99787107, $789,160 (26% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 99787107, $562,409 (80% win rate)
  3. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 99787107, $239,344 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x0042...321e Outcome 99787107, $178,675 (47% win rate)
  5. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 99787107, $131,581 (88% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 99787107, $90,379 (59% win rate)
  7. 0xcf60...47ce Outcome 99787107, $83,504 (54% win rate)
  8. 0xcb01...ead3 Outcome 99787107, $80,028 (4% win rate)
  9. 0xc445...19a9 Outcome 99787107, $40,000
  10. 0xea79...a9cc Outcome 99787107, $30,694 (66% win rate)

Related Theses

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

ResolvedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?$267,784 tracked32 signalsTrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefirePolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
102¢
99¢
96¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

17d ago

$4,000 on Yes at 6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

17d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

22d ago

$2,333 on Yes at 7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

23d ago

$8,141 on Yes at 6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

23d ago

$1,400 on Yes at 7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

28d ago

$3,907 on Yes at 8¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

32d ago

$2,500 on Yes at 10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

32d ago

$2,222 on Yes at 10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

32d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

33d ago

$2,700 on Yes at 9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

35d ago

$2,475 on Yes at 9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

41d ago

$7,136 on No at 88¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

45d ago

$4,050 on No at 81¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

45d ago

$4,050 on No at 81¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

45d ago

$47,329 on No at 80¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

45d ago

$1,801 on Yes at 24¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$2,683 on No at 72¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$5,592 on No at 71¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$6,931 on No at 71¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$17,131 on No at 76¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$2,074 on No at 69¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

47d ago

$10,391 on Yes at 28¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

53d ago

$1,303 on No at 82¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

56d ago

$5,020 on Yes at 13¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

56d ago

$7,560 on No at 88¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

58d ago

$3,570 on Yes at 17¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

28d ago

$37,189 on Yes at 10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

59d ago

$9,940 on Yes at 17¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

59d ago

$8,689 on Yes at 16¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

59d ago

$11,050 on Yes at 15¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

60d ago

$7,259 on No at 89¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

61d ago

$29,355 on No at 85¢

Related Theses