US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether the US government or military will officially confirm that it has taken physical possession of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the United States actually has custody or control of the material, not merely a deal, plan, or agreement. PolySpotter is tracking smart money activity here, including a recent sharp-funded cluster buying Yes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $205,371.

Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics

Notable Trades

71% win-rate macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 71% win rate bought No in a geopolitics market at 81¢, making this a reasonable sharp-follow signal despite only one detection source.

  • This bettor has won 269 of 379 resolved trades and is up about $293k overall
  • They trade heavily across related markets — 148 markets across 81 events with $1.46M deployed
  • They bought No at 81¢ in a geopolitics market, signaling they see the current 20% Yes odds as too high

$4,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

19-wallet sharp cluster

A proven profitable trader from a 19-wallet linked cluster bought No at 81¢ in a geopolitics market, combining strong track record with coordinated-wallet context.

  • This bettor wins 71% of 379 resolved trades and is up about $293k lifetime
  • Nineteen wallets funded by the same source have been linked before, suggesting a coordinated operator with scale
  • They bought No at 81¢ in a geopolitics market, implying they see the current 20% Yes odds as too high

$4,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Proven geopolitics grinder

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a large $47k position added during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 888 resolved markets and is up $1.37M lifetime
  • They just put $47.3k into No at 80¢ as volume ran 77.6x above normal
  • This wallet trades across many related events — 38 events and 53 markets suggest a repeatable macro process

$47,329 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

7-wallet funded cluster

A 7-wallet funded cluster is positioning the same thesis here, and this wallet is an experienced, profitable trader buying the equivalent of Yes at 24¢ in a liquid geopolitics market.

  • Seven wallets funded by the same source have been flagged on this thesis, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
  • This wallet has 643 wins and $142k in profit across more than 1,000 resolved bets
  • The trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 24¢, implying they see the market as underpricing this outcome

$1,801 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate sold Yes at 28¢, which converts to a BUY No signal at 72¢ on a heavily traded geopolitical market seeing unusual volume.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime.
  • They trade across 137 markets in 85 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • They sold Yes at 28¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 72¢ during a 12.8x volume spike.

$2,683 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

86% winner reloading No

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a geopolitically plausible market during a volume surge.

  • This bettor has won 869 of 1,013 resolved trades across 135 events
  • They reopened a $5.6k No position at 71¢, and the market is now 74¢
  • The market saw a 12.8x volume spike, suggesting broader money is moving into this event

$5,592 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate and over $1.1M in realized P&L is fading this geopolitical market by selling Yes, which translates to buying No around 71¢.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $1.1M lifetime
  • They trade across 83 events and 136 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They sold Yes at 29¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 71¢ in a liquid market

$6,931 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

New whale buying NO

A 10-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just made a fresh $17.1k bearish trade into a geopolitical market during a volume spike, suggesting real conviction worth monitoring.

  • This 10-day-old wallet has already triggered 8 large-bet alerts and deployed about $57k across flagged trades
  • The latest move is a $17.1k bet against Yes, equivalent to buying No around 76¢ in a major geopolitical market
  • Market activity is running 10.3x above normal and the wallet has no prior position here, so this looks like fresh conviction

$17,131 on No

87% winner flips to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate opened a fresh No position into a strong volume spike, suggesting a deliberate thesis change rather than routine flow.

  • This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up nearly $395k lifetime
  • They trade across 49 related markets and 26 events, which points to a repeatable macro thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • This is a fresh No position after closing an earlier Yes bet, entered at 69¢ during a 16.4x volume spike

$2,074 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

3-wallet Yes cluster

Three wallets piled into Yes for over $10k, led by a high-volume bettor with a 77% win rate and backed by a broader serial cross-market trader pattern in an actively repricing geopolitics market.

  • A bettor who wins 77% of 1,033 resolved trades led this move and is up $1.7M lifetime
  • Three wallets bought the same side within minutes for $10.4k total as Yes moved up to 28%
  • The market has already gained 7 points in a day, so this flow lines up with fresh momentum in a major geopolitics market

$10,391 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a85...fe9d Yes, $711,915 (26% win rate)
  2. 0xa41e...30f9 Yes, $382,432 (50% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $253,091 (64% win rate)
  4. 0x7ea7...79ac No, $180,087
  5. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $130,865 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $100,201 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $80,995 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x70c1...1be2 No, $78,683 (77% win rate)
  9. 0x614d...1546 No, $70,527 (66% win rate)
  10. 0x9648...6825 No, $67,790 (70% win rate)

Related Theses

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

40d$205,371 tracked20 signalsTrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefirePolitics
Yes
19¢
No
82¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
84¢
77¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

9h ago

$4,050 on No at 81¢

81¢82¢1¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

9h ago

$4,050 on No at 81¢

81¢82¢1¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

12h ago

$47,329 on No at 80¢

80¢82¢2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

16h ago

$1,801 on Yes at 24¢

24¢19¢5¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$2,683 on No at 72¢

72¢82¢10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$5,592 on No at 71¢

71¢82¢11¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$6,931 on No at 71¢

71¢82¢11¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$17,131 on No at 76¢

76¢82¢6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$2,074 on No at 69¢

69¢82¢13¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$10,391 on Yes at 28¢

28¢19¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

8d ago

$1,303 on No at 82¢

82¢82¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

11d ago

$5,020 on Yes at 13¢

13¢19¢6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

11d ago

$7,560 on No at 88¢

88¢82¢6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

13d ago

$3,570 on Yes at 17¢

17¢19¢2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

2d ago

$19,590 on Yes at 29¢

29¢19¢10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

14d ago

$9,940 on Yes at 17¢

17¢19¢2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

14d ago

$8,689 on Yes at 16¢

16¢19¢3¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

14d ago

$11,050 on Yes at 15¢

15¢19¢4¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

15d ago

$7,259 on No at 89¢

89¢82¢7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

16d ago

$29,355 on No at 85¢

85¢82¢3¢

Related Theses