Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
32 smart money signals detected, totaling $267,784.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
91% serial cross-market winner
Proven cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 6¢ as part of a broader Iran-uranium event thesis.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $155k lifetime.
- They have traded 73 related events across 125 markets, showing a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 6¢ is a long-shot bet with large upside if their geopolitical thesis is right.
$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Fresh wallet buying longshot
A 4-hour-old wallet made a repeat large bet, putting $5k on the 6¢ Yes side of a geopolitical tail-risk market.
- A brand-new wallet is already making large bets, with $10k total flagged across repeat activity.
- They bought Yes at 6¢ while the market is around 8¢, implying a high-upside longshot view.
- This is a geopolitical market where informed positioning could matter more than on routine markets.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
90% cross-market sharp
Sharp 90% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is buying a low-probability Yes outcome despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $153k lifetime.
- They have traded across 72 events and 124 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 7¢ is a long-shot bet with about 14x upside if the market resolves Yes.
$2,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.66M lifetime P&L is reopening/adding exposure to a low-probability Yes thesis at 6¢ across related Iran uranium markets.
- This bettor has a long track record: 908 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $1.66M lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.4M deployed across 78 related-event markets.
- Entry at 6¢ is a cheap asymmetric bet, implying they see more upside than the market’s current 6% odds.
$8,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
$1.8M sharp re-enters Yes
Proven sharp wallet with 77% win rate and $1.8M lifetime profit is re-entering a low-probability Yes position across related Iran uranium markets.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M lifetime.
- They have already traded this market heavily, with $88k previously invested on Yes.
- Buying at 7¢ gives a high-upside entry if they are right about a policy or military development.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial sharp buying long-shot YES
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is taking a small but notable long-shot YES position at 8¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.2M lifetime.
- They have traded across 166 markets and $4.4M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with over 12x upside if the market resolves Yes.
$3,907 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
$1M-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable $1M lifetime wallet is making a cross-market geopolitical bet, though size is modest relative to this liquid market.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They are building a cross-market thesis in the same event, with about $3.7K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside bet if the uranium transfer scenario becomes more likely.
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
90% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved-bet record is taking a small but notable 10¢ Yes position on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 90% of 157 resolved bets and is up about $155k lifetime.
- They have traded across 71 events and 122 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a long-shot view that the market is underpricing the chance of US possession.
$2,222 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
90% serial cross-market bettor
A highly active cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate is taking a fresh $3k longshot Yes position on a liquid geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 90% of resolved markets, with 141 wins and $155k in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.95M placed across 121 markets in 70 events.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside thesis if the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
$1M-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is making a small but thesis-driven cross-market bet on a geopolitical outcome at long odds.
- This bettor has won 71% of 1,068 resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They have put $3.9k across two related Iran uranium markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 9¢ offers long-shot upside if the US confirms possession by the deadline.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Outcome 99787107, $789,160 (26% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 99787107, $562,409 (80% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 99787107, $239,344 (70% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 99787107, $178,675 (47% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 99787107, $131,581 (88% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 99787107, $90,379 (59% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Outcome 99787107, $83,504 (54% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 99787107, $80,028 (4% win rate)
- 0xc445...19a9 — Outcome 99787107, $40,000
- 0xea79...a9cc — Outcome 99787107, $30,694 (66% win rate)
