US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
29 smart money signals detected, totaling $214,779.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Trump, Politics
Notable Trades
86% winner joins 20-wallet wave
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor joined a 20-wallet coordinated Yes wave on a major geopolitics market, making this flow worth watching despite the small individual ticket.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $399k across nearly $7.0M wagered.
- 20 wallets all bought Yes for a combined $88k, including linked funding across 4 wallets, which points to strong shared conviction.
- This is a fresh re-entry after previously closing both sides on the market, and the market has seen a 68x volume spike.
$1,812 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp trader in 20-wallet cluster
Surface this: a highly profitable 88% win-rate trader joined a 20-wallet one-sided Yes cluster and bought well below the current price in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up $1.13M lifetime.
- 20 wallets piled into Yes for $88.5k total, with 4 linked by funding source.
- This wallet bought at 39¢ and the market is now 54¢, showing strong early conviction.
$3,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
20-wallet ceasefire cluster
A 20-wallet coordinated cluster is buying Yes into a major geopolitical market during a 68x volume spike, and this wallet joined by selling No at an implied 42¢ despite already being an active profitable cross-market trader.
- 20 wallets are all betting Yes on this market, with $88.5k total and 4 of them linked to the same funder.
- This wallet has traded 36 related markets across 26 events and is up about $109k overall.
- They got in at an implied 42¢ by selling No at 58¢, while Yes now trades around 54¢ after a 68x volume surge.
$1,603 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
19-wallet sharp cluster
A proven sharp trader with an 86% win rate joined a 19-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth surfacing despite the price moving against the entry.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $399k lifetime.
- 19 wallets bet the same Yes outcome for $71k total, and some share funding links.
- The market saw an 80x volume spike, and this wallet flipped from earlier closed positions into a fresh Yes buy at 55¢.
$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
19-wallet geopolitics cluster
A highly profitable serial event trader with an 88% win rate joined a 19-wallet linked cluster buying Yes into a major volume spike, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth watching despite near-term adverse price movement.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime.
- 19 wallets bought the same side for $71k total, with linked funding behind part of the cluster.
- The market saw an 80x volume spike, and this wallet entered Yes at 50¢ while the market now sits at 44¢.
$1,232 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
19-wallet Yes cluster
A proven 82% win-rate trader re-entered Yes alongside a 19-wallet one-sided cluster after previously closing a larger position, making this coordinated follow-on bet worth watching despite the recent price drop.
- 19 wallets bought Yes together for $71k, and some share the same funder.
- This wallet wins 82% of resolved bets and has made about $324k profit.
- The trader re-entered Yes at 56¢ after closing an earlier position, even with the market down about 25 points.
$1,237 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% win-rate news trader
A proven high-win-rate trader with over $1.1M in profit is buying into a major geopolitical market during a large volume spike, making this a trade worth watching despite adverse immediate price action.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime across nearly $5.9M invested.
- They trade across 148 markets in 92 events, which points to a repeatable edge in news-driven markets.
- They bought Yes at 68¢ during a 70x volume spike, even as this market has been moving fast.
$1,583 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Pro geopolitical cross-market bettor
A proven profitable cross-market trader bought into a high-volume geopolitical market during a major dislocation, suggesting a thesis worth tracking even though the entry was far above the current price.
- This bettor has won 68% of 790 resolved trades and is up $706k lifetime.
- They trade across events heavily — 96 markets over 67 events — which suggests a repeatable news-driven approach.
- This buy came during a 70x volume spike after a 29-point drop in Yes, showing they stepped in aggressively during a sharp selloff.
$3,359 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
97% win-rate news trader
A highly proven 97% win-rate cross-market trader bought Yes during a major volume and price surge in a news-driven geopolitics market, suggesting informed momentum worth following.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades across 1,261 bets and has traded 552 markets in 291 events.
- They bought Yes at 85¢ as this market's price jumped 27 points and 24-hour volume topped $1.09M.
- In a real-world geopolitics market, paying 85¢ suggests they see the ceasefire extension as still undervalued.
$4,710 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable event trader chasing momentum
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought into a fast-moving geopolitical market during a major volume and price surge, making this momentum-backed positioning worth tracking.
- This bettor has won 66% of 912 resolved trades and is up about $235k lifetime.
- They bought during a 20.8x volume spike as Yes jumped 27 points, showing strong momentum behind the move.
- The entry was 88¢ in a major geopolitics market, suggesting conviction even after the market repriced sharply.
$1,768 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $128,586 (88% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $71,032 (68% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $54,444 (55% win rate)
- 0xc0ff...9953 — No, $50,839 (53% win rate)
- 0xe25b...0f1b — Yes, $42,996 (56% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $41,656 (57% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $35,636 (64% win rate)
- 0xea79...a9cc — Yes, $34,872 (66% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — No, $33,586 (87% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — No, $32,611 (43% win rate)
