Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,244.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
82% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5.2k of No on the Hormuz transit threshold.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $23.7k lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader with $1.75M deployed across 148 markets.
- A $5.2k buy on No at 83¢ suggests confidence the 60-ship threshold will not be hit.
$5,205 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
98% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp 98% winning wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a cross-market No thesis across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 46 of 47 resolved trades and is up $43.9k lifetime.
- They are betting a $5.8k cross-market thesis, including $2.5k on No here at 79¢.
- The market is liquid enough to follow, and No is now around 76¢, below their entry.
$1,659 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
4-wallet contrarian Yes flow
Four wallets are making a coordinated contrarian Yes bet on a geopolitics-adjacent shipping market, with one positive-P&L bettor and cross-market positioning adding some signal despite mixed wallet quality.
- Four wallets are all taking the Yes side, totaling about $4.9k in a market now priced near 20¢.
- One bettor in the cluster is up about $7k lifetime with 14 wins in 19 resolved bets.
- The group is also active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Strait of Hormuz ship traffic.
$4,912 on Yes
Proven sharp buying No
Sharp wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and +$48.6k lifetime P&L is buying No, supported by related cross-market positioning and strong recent No momentum.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $48.6k lifetime.
- They are buying No at 65¢ while also positioning across a related market.
- The market has moved sharply toward No today, with Yes down 28.5%.
$1,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp exits NO
Sharp, highly profitable serial trader is reducing a No position, which is a modest bullish signal but partly profit-taking rather than fresh conviction.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved bets and is up $409k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 653 markets and $2.16M traded.
- Selling No after entering around 63¢ reads as reducing bearish exposure, not a full fresh Yes position.
$1,135 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
82% winner shipping thesis
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes as part of a broader Hormuz shipping thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $816K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.7M deployed across 186 markets.
- This Yes buy is part of a broader 4-market position on the same shipping event.
$1,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor flips to No
A proven sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought No after previously closing a Yes position, making the directional flip worth surfacing.
- This bettor has won 13 of 14 resolved positions and is up about $6K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 78¢ after previously closing a Yes position, suggesting a fresh directional flip.
- The market has heavy recent volume and Yes is down 15 points today, aligning with the No entry.
$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
86% winner buying YES
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 22¢ despite only a modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $23.2k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 22¢, implying a ~4.5x payout if the shipping threshold is hit.
- The market has heavy recent activity, with $140.6k traded in 24h and a tight 1¢ spread.
$1,614 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
94% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate is extending a cross-market thesis by buying No on the Hormuz transit threshold.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $39.9K lifetime.
- They are active across related markets, with $7.2K positioned in a broader event thesis.
- Bought No at 81¢, implying confidence the 60-ship threshold will not be reached.
$1,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Proven sharp buying No
Sharp wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and +$48.6k lifetime P&L is buying No, supported by related cross-market positioning and strong recent No momentum.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $48.6k lifetime.
- They are buying No at 65¢ while also positioning across a related market.
- The market has moved sharply toward No today, with Yes down 28.5%.
$1,846 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $41,736 (74% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $24,248 (47% win rate)
- 0x22e4...ef1c — No, $24,198 (58% win rate)
- 0xc381...a661 — No, $20,801 (83% win rate)
- 0xdb45...b5d6 — Yes, $19,865 (38% win rate)
- 0x49e9...8f85 — No, $18,743 (98% win rate)
- 0xcb59...0a22 — Yes, $18,244 (68% win rate)
- 0xf5e8...9fbd — Yes, $15,912
- 0x73e3...3239 — Yes, $15,414 (95% win rate)
- 0x4da7...355e — Yes, $15,134 (55% win rate)
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