Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,584.

Categories: World, Germany, Politics, Elections, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Proven bettor leads coordinated No buying

Three wallets committed $9,342 to No, including a serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and substantial proven profitability, while the market rapidly moved from roughly 83% to 99% No.

  • Three wallets bought No for $9,342 at 83–84¢, and the market has since moved to about 99¢.
  • One participant wins 82% of 393 resolved bets, is up $615,431, and has traded across 35 events.
  • The coordinated buying and sharp price move support the No thesis, though the current 99¢ price is too high to chase.

$9,342 on No

82% winner buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought No at 84% on a long-dated political market.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 393 resolved trades and earned $615,537 in reported P&L.
  • The wallet consistently trades across events, with 82 markets and $478,392 in total volume.
  • It bought No at 84¢, while the market has since moved to 91¢, reinforcing the direction.

$2,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 17056947, $26,248
  2. 0x9592...a85b Outcome 97595365, $12,314
  3. 0x23d8...0288 Outcome 97595365, $6,198 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xd352...4ad6 Outcome 97595365, $5,398 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x94c4...43ca Outcome 97595365, $5,010 (76% win rate)
  6. 0x944e...8c94 Outcome 97595365, $3,000 (67% win rate)
  7. 0xc8c7...3726 Outcome 97595365, $2,237 (79% win rate)
  8. 0xaa68...3cb3 Outcome 97595365, $1,320
  9. 0x434c...4abe Outcome 97595365, $1,216
  10. 0x3a52...8226 Outcome 97595365, $1,182

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Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?

ResolvedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?$11,584 tracked2 signalsWorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsSaxony-AnhaltSachsen-AnhaltWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Price History — “No
102¢
89¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?

4d ago

$9,342 on No at 83¢

Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?

5d ago

$2,241 on No at 84¢

Related Theses