Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,327.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 71% win rate and $271k profit is taking a fresh $3.1k NO position in a major geopolitics market at 32¢.
- This bettor wins 71% of 604 resolved trades and is up $271k lifetime
- They have traded 411 related markets across 301 events, showing a repeatable event-driven process
- Bought No at 32¢ in a deep geopolitics market, implying they see the chance of no official end announcement as much higher
$3,061 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
97% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with a 97% win rate is building a multi-market thesis on this event, including a fresh $5.7k buy of No at 30¢.
- This bettor wins 35 of 36 resolved trades and is up $17.7k overall.
- They are betting across 3 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Bought No at 30¢, a cheap entry if they are right that operations will not officially end by June 30.
$5,736 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
A serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $160,985 profit just bought $7.5k of Yes at 77¢ in a major geopolitical market, making this a credible follow signal despite only one detection source.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $160,985 overall
- They have traded 147 markets across 102 events, which suggests repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 77¢ with $7,530, a sizable position in a live geopolitical market
$7,530 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $238,663 (71% win rate)
- 0x3541...462e — No, $82,586 (47% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $64,500 (97% win rate)
- 0x0721...adf8 — No, $56,537
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $45,511 (62% win rate)
- 0x9a18...c5c4 — No, $40,262
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — Yes, $37,425 (83% win rate)
- 0x8e2d...631f — No, $37,297
- 0x613c...e423 — Yes, $34,338 (46% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $27,813 (67% win rate)
