Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
47 smart money signals detected, totaling $251,589.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Repeat event bettor adding to No
An established bettor with activity across nine related markets is adding to a substantial existing No position, though its win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning odds.
- This bettor has positioned across 9 related markets, with about $175,000 in event exposure.
- They added $5,591 to an existing No position already worth about $98,000, at 87¢.
- The wallet has won 19 of 27 resolved bets, but its 70% win rate is not clearly above its 77¢ average winning price.
$5,591 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
97% winner scaling into No
A highly successful bettor is adding to an existing No position while maintaining a repeated thesis across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved trades, with a reported 27-point edge over average odds.
- They added $2,175 to No and have about $12,500 already invested in this market.
- The wallet has positioned across three related markets, with $24,743 in total bets on the event.
$2,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Experienced trader scaling into No
A highly experienced trader added $17,093 to No while positioning across four related markets, alongside a 14.8x volume spike.
- A bettor with 1,151 resolved positions and over $1.28M in reported profit added another $17,093 to No.
- The trader already had $20,000 in this position and has bets across four related markets totaling $125,315.
- Trading volume is 14.8 times its historical average, while No is priced at 85¢.
$4,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Experienced trader scaling into No
A highly experienced trader added $17,093 to No while positioning across four related markets, alongside a 14.8x volume spike.
- A bettor with 1,151 resolved positions and over $1.28M in reported profit added another $17,093 to No.
- The trader already had $20,000 in this position and has bets across four related markets totaling $125,315.
- Trading volume is 14.8 times its historical average, while No is priced at 85¢.
$8,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp bettor exits No for Yes
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate and substantial odds-adjusted edge sold No, equivalent to buying Yes, though this may be an exit from an existing No position.
- This bettor has won 128 of 152 resolved positions, with an average win price of 43%.
- The $1,264 sale of No converts to a Yes position at about 15¢, but may reflect profit-taking on an existing No holding.
- The bettor has positioned across three markets tied to the same event, totaling $6,639.
$1,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Experienced trader scaling into No
A highly experienced trader added $17,093 to No while positioning across four related markets, alongside a 14.8x volume spike.
- A bettor with 1,151 resolved positions and over $1.28M in reported profit added another $17,093 to No.
- The trader already had $20,000 in this position and has bets across four related markets totaling $125,315.
- Trading volume is 14.8 times its historical average, while No is priced at 85¢.
$17,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
92% winner betting against Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is selling Yes while positioning across three markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 387 of 422 resolved positions and earned nearly $2.0M.
- They sold Yes at 19¢, equivalent to buying No at 81¢, and have positions across three markets in this event.
$3,988 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable bettor scaling No across eight markets
A profitable bettor with a 72% record has built a substantial No position across eight related markets and added at 80¢ as market odds moved toward No.
- This bettor is up $48,144 across 25 resolved bets and has positioned across eight related markets.
- They added $2,000 to an existing No position after investing over $20,000 in it.
- No is available at 80¢, with market odds recently shifting further toward No.
$26,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial trader adds to No thesis
A highly profitable bettor with a strong 133-bet record is buying No and has positioned across seven markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved bets and is up $237,332 overall.
- They bought No at 78¢ after previously investing $19,333 in No on this market.
- The wallet has traded seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate across its event positions.
$1,659 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A highly profitable bettor with 377 resolved trades is adding No here while positioning across eight markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 76% of 377 resolved trades and is up about $763,000.
- They have positioned about $59,500 across eight markets tied to the same event, including this $3,900 No buy.
- No is trading at 78¢, and the market has substantial liquidity with a 1¢ spread.
$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xc4c8...cabb — Yes, $237,448 (25% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $151,370 (35% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $117,955 (87% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $109,273 (52% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $66,990 (76% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $62,082 (85% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $51,195 (73% win rate)
- 0x7555...ecc5 — Yes, $50,000
- 0xa97e...24ff — Yes, $35,223
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $32,340 (52% win rate)
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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