Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,348.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is buying No on Paloma Valencia while also positioning across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor has won 82% of 202 resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
- They put $7.0k on No at 85¢, a meaningful bet equal to over half of the market’s 24h volume.
- The wallet is also active across another related Colombian election market, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$7,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner betting NO
A proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is taking a $3.3k No position and has placed $6.3k across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
- They bought $3.3k of No at 84¢, taking a clear position against Paloma Valencia.
- The same wallet has $6.3k across two related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$3,333 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% record is buying No on Paloma Valencia while also positioning across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor has won 81% of 197 resolved bets and is up $42K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 related election markets, suggesting a broader Colombia 2026 thesis.
- Buying No at 84¢ implies a low-risk thesis that Valencia is unlikely to win.
$1,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
80% winner fading Paloma
A highly profitable wallet with an 80% win rate sold Paloma Valencia Yes at 31¢, which converts to a copyable BUY No at 69¢ on a liquid election market.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades and is up about $626k across 1,072 resolved markets.
- They exited Yes at 31¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 69¢ in this election market.
- The market is liquid and Paloma's odds have fallen about 10 points over the past week, matching the bearish view.
$1,457 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable new wallet adds NO
A repeat new wallet with early profits put another $2.1k behind Paloma Valencia NO at 68-70¢, adding notable conviction in a major political market.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 5 times, has 9 positions, and is up $3.2k so far.
- Both trades point the same way: selling Yes at 32¢ is the same as buying No at 68¢, then adding more No at 70¢.
- The bet is in a major 2026 Colombia election market, and they are leaning into the side already moving higher with Yes down 6.2 points in a day.
$2,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
Sharp bettor flipping to No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate sold Yes at 33¢, which translates to a copyable BUY No at 67¢ on a liquid political market.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,041 resolved markets and is up $614k lifetime
- They sold Yes at 33¢, which is the same as buying No at 67¢ against Paloma Valencia
- This is a real political market with decent liquidity, so the move looks more like informed pricing than a random punt
$1,008 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor fades Yes
A proven sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $612k profit is fading Paloma Valencia by effectively buying No at 62¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,035 resolved markets and is up $612k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 38¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 62¢ in this binary market.
- Their average winning entry is 44¢, so this price still fits a disciplined value-betting style.
$1,137 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
A highly profitable 75%-win-rate serial cross-market trader sold Yes at 40¢, which translates to buying No at 60¢ on a major political market.
- This bettor wins 75% of 1,022 resolved trades and is up $3.28M lifetime.
- They trade across 82 events and 124 related markets, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge.
- This sale at 40¢ on Yes is equivalent to buying No at 60¢, showing a clear view against this candidate.
$2,082 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A repeat new wallet with early profits is making another meaningful political bet, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite the modest trade size.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 4 times, with $9.5k in notable bets and $3.2k in profit so far
- It is adding fresh money to a 2026 Colombia election market by buying Yes at 43¢, above the current 41¢ market price
- The market is liquid enough that this looks like deliberate conviction, not just noise in a dead market
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 85033408, $1,164,829
- 0x784f...5df9 — Outcome 62446510, $108,635 (86% win rate)
- 0x4207...b81b — Outcome 62446510, $80,073 (29% win rate)
- 0x585b...753f — Outcome 62446510, $34,729
- 0xb0d6...7475 — Outcome 62446510, $27,593
- 0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 62446510, $25,000 (86% win rate)
- 0x4f1d...8de2 — Outcome 62446510, $24,701 (80% win rate)
- 0x8438...02fe — Outcome 62446510, $22,114
- 0x21ff...5e2a — Outcome 62446510, $21,340 (75% win rate)
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 62446510, $20,000 (41% win rate)
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