Part of: Who will meet with Iran by April 30?

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,000.

Categories: Politics, Kushner, Vance, Witkoff, rubio, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Repeat new wallet buyer

A 12-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across positions and just bought Yes at 23¢ in a politically relevant market that has already moved up, making it a plausible informed-conviction new wallet despite limited resolved history.

  • This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts with $17.2k flagged total
  • bullet bought Yes at 23¢ and the market is already up to 25¢ after a 11.6-point daily move
  • The market is active but not huge, so a new wallet repeatedly sizing into politics is worth tracking

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0042...321e Outcome 13236881, $23,713 (45% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 13236881, $21,124 (84% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Outcome 13236881, $13,000 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x621e...6510 Outcome 13236881, $6,342 (33% win rate)
  5. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 13236881, $5,571 (82% win rate)
  6. 0x65fb...9055 Outcome 13236881, $3,400 (64% win rate)
  7. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 13236881, $2,502 (68% win rate)
  8. 0xd8e4...cb68 Outcome 13236881, $1,919
  9. 0x9b49...ab21 Outcome 13236881, $1,840 (42% win rate)
  10. 0x0a6d...1d0a Outcome 13236881, $1,758

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

ResolvedWho will meet with Iran by April 30?$1,000 tracked1 signalPoliticsKushnerVanceWitkoffrubioGeopoliticsIranIran CeasefireTrumpU.S. x IranDiplomatic meeting

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

36d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 23¢

Related Theses