Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,307.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire

Notable Trades

95% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A bettor with an extraordinary 95% win rate over 525 resolved markets bought No at 71¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-position signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 95% of their trades with 525 resolved positions and is up about $58.6k
They bought No at 71¢ in a deep, active geopolitics market, suggesting this is a deliberate pricing view rather than random flow
A 71¢ entry means they see the conflict lasting past this deadline more often than the market may be pricing

$2,488 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A repeat new-wallet whale with over $118k in recent flagged bets rotated out of a prior Yes position and made a fresh $7.1k buy on No in a liquid geopolitics market, suggesting deliberate thesis-driven conviction.

This 18-day-old wallet has already triggered 16 large-bet alerts and put over $118k to work
They closed an earlier Yes position and came back with a fresh $7.1k buy on No at 71¢, showing a clear view change
The bet is in a liquid geopolitics market with a tight 1¢ spread, so this looks like intentional positioning rather than random flow

$7,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Repeat new wallet flips bearish

A repeat new wallet with growing size flipped from a closed Yes position into a fresh $7.1k No bet, adding cross-market exposure on a major geopolitics market with decent liquidity.

This 18-day-old wallet has already triggered 13 large-bet alerts and has put nearly $89k to work
It closed an earlier Yes position on this market and came back with a fresh $7.1k bet on No at 69-70¢
The trader is also betting across 2 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader conflict thesis

$7,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

97% win-rate conflict bettor

A wallet with a 97% resolved win rate is making a fresh $20,000 bet on No while building a larger $60,000 thesis across three related conflict markets.

This bettor wins 35 of 36 resolved trades and is up about $17.7k overall
They put $20k on No here as part of a $60k position across 3 related conflict markets
They bought at 73¢ with the market already sliding, backing the view that a near-term end is still unlikely

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

4-wallet conflict-market cluster

A 4-wallet cluster is collectively rotating into a bearish view on this conflict market with over $64k of one-sided flow across linked signals, even though the individual wallet track records are mixed.

Four wallets lined up on the same side, with $12.3k of sells here and another $52.1k of No buying in the same market.
This is a real geopolitical market with solid volume, so coordinated one-sided flow matters more than a random thin-market punt.
Most of these wallets had prior positions and are re-entering or rotating exposure, which points to an active thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$12,283 on No

3-wallet No cluster

This is worth surfacing because a very new wallet joined a 3-wallet, $52k one-sided push into No on a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine flow.

Three wallets put $52k behind No in the same market, a strong one-way signal.
This wallet is only 5 days old and still placed a $1.1k bet, which can signal fresh conviction.
They bought at 68¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, backing the view that conflict will not end by May 15.

$1,088 on No

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

A bettor with a 97% win rate is building a cross-market thesis on this conflict event and just added a $5,000 No position at 57¢ in a liquid market.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $11.2k profit on $63.9k invested
They have bet $35k across 3 related markets in this same event, showing a clear thesis rather than a one-off punt
They bought No at 57¢, implying they think the market still underprices continued conflict through May 15

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets across multiple markets and just put another $4.3k into NO at 41¢, suggesting a new high-conviction bettor worth monitoring despite no resolved track record yet.

This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts with $153.9k flagged total
They opened a fresh $4.3k NO position at 41¢, implying they see the conflict lasting longer than the market expects
The bet is meaningful but not routine for a brand-new wallet, and it adds to a pattern of aggressive early sizing

$4,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%