Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
This Polymarket market asks whether the US avoids a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran through November 8, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; tracked smart money totals $1,800 across one signal, with a recent alert reporting a bettor adding to No.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $281,323.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Funded cluster backing No
Seven wallets sharing a funder and substantial cross-market activity make this notable, though the No position has fallen from 64¢ to 44¢ and the trader's win rate does not establish clear edge at its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have placed about $1,234 on this position.
- The trader has made bets across 101 events and shows a 66% win rate, though their average winning price is high at 81¢.
- No was bought at 64¢ and is now 44¢, so the market has moved sharply against this entry.
$7,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Funded cluster backing No
Seven wallets sharing a funder and substantial cross-market activity make this notable, though the No position has fallen from 64¢ to 44¢ and the trader's win rate does not establish clear edge at its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have placed about $1,234 on this position.
- The trader has made bets across 101 events and shows a 66% win rate, though their average winning price is high at 81¢.
- No was bought at 64¢ and is now 44¢, so the market has moved sharply against this entry.
$2,880 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Repeat cross-market Yes bettor
Repeat cross-market positioning across four markets in the same event supports a directional Yes thesis, though the wallet’s 80% record is not clearly strong relative to its average winning entry price.
- The wallet has positioned $14,762 across four markets tied to this event, including activity in prior runs.
- This is an add to an existing Yes position: $1,500 more after already investing $9,618 at an average 73¢ entry.
- The wallet has 8 wins and 2 losses in its last 10 resolved bets, though its average winning price of 91¢ tempers the track record.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A proven profitable bettor with a 76% win rate is selling Yes as part of a $21.8K position across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 76% of 150 resolved bets and is up $273K lifetime.
- They are positioning across three related markets, with $21.8K in combined trades.
- Selling Yes at 71¢ translates to buying No at about 29¢.
$1,459 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Funded cluster backing No
Seven wallets sharing a funder and substantial cross-market activity make this notable, though the No position has fallen from 64¢ to 44¢ and the trader's win rate does not establish clear edge at its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have placed about $1,234 on this position.
- The trader has made bets across 101 events and shows a 66% win rate, though their average winning price is high at 81¢.
- No was bought at 64¢ and is now 44¢, so the market has moved sharply against this entry.
$2,334 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven 76% winner buying Yes
A proven, highly profitable bettor with 150 resolved positions and a strong record is buying Yes, while also positioning across three related event markets.
- This bettor has won 76% of 150 resolved positions and made $273,375.
- They have placed $21,280 across three markets tied to this event, including earlier trades.
- The Yes position was bought at 71¢, near the current 70% odds.
$1,857 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Linked wallets accumulating Yes
Four wallets, including wallets from two linked funding clusters, sold No for $7,416, equivalent to buying Yes around 63¢—below the current 70¢ price.
- Four wallets moved $7,416 toward Yes, with detected funding links across two wallet groups.
- Their trades imply a Yes entry near 63¢, below the current market price of 70¢.
- The cluster’s related cross-market track records are mixed, so the coordinated positioning is the clearest signal.
$7,416 on Yes
Funded cluster backing No
Seven wallets sharing a funder and substantial cross-market activity make this notable, though the No position has fallen from 64¢ to 44¢ and the trader's win rate does not establish clear edge at its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have placed about $1,234 on this position.
- The trader has made bets across 101 events and shows a 66% win rate, though their average winning price is high at 81¢.
- No was bought at 64¢ and is now 44¢, so the market has moved sharply against this entry.
$1,234 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Funded cluster building No exposure
Four wallets bought No, with linked-funder activity and substantial repeated positioning across related event markets supporting the coordinated trade.
- Four wallets bought No for $6,472, and the wallets are part of a seven-wallet shared-funder cluster.
- The group has repeatedly positioned across related markets, with signals tracking as much as $72,103 in event-market activity.
- Several wallets have profitable histories, though their win rates do not clearly beat their typical entry odds.
$6,472 on No
Five-market Iran-event positioning
The wallet has built $26.9k of positions across five related markets, making this sizeable bet against the ceasefire worth watching despite no clear evidence of an edge from its overall record.
- The wallet has positioned $26,897 across five markets tied to the same event, with activity seen across multiple scans.
- It sold Yes at 80¢, equivalent to buying No at 20¢; its 71% record across 78 resolved bets is not clearly better than the prices it typically wins at.
$2,146 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x73d0...239c — Yes, $102,296 (100% win rate)
- 0x35bb...009b — Yes, $16,123 (70% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — No, $15,253 (70% win rate)
- 0x3403...9906 — No, $15,000
- 0x1359...092e — Yes, $14,063 (83% win rate)
- 0x9653...4228 — No, $10,625 (69% win rate)
- 0xbcfe...ee58 — Yes, $9,618 (80% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — No, $9,433 (43% win rate)
- 0xfb59...83f9 — Yes, $9,173 (61% win rate)
- 0xecb1...f1c4 — Yes, $7,500
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