US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if a direct, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations occurs before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders use this market to follow the latest prediction market odds on a possible US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,290.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

86% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable serial event trader with an 86% win rate is making a fresh $4.1k bet on No in a major geopolitics market after a sharp one-day repricing.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
  • They trade across 32 related events and 64 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
  • They bought No at 83¢ after this market dropped 70.5% in a day, showing conviction in a still-liquid geopolitics market.

$4,132 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

86% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven high-win-rate trader is taking a fresh cross-market geopolitical position, buying No at 82¢ after a major 1-day price drop in a liquid event market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $401k lifetime across 189 settled bets.
  • They are betting across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought No at 82¢ after a 70-point 1-day move, signaling conviction even after the market repriced.

$3,274 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

90% winner, bearish thesis

A high-win-rate wallet with 175 resolved bets is adding a cross-market geopolitical thesis here, buying No before the market moved further in its favor.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their trades across 175 resolved markets
  • They bought No at 73¢ and the market is now 80¢, so the trade moved their way quickly
  • The wallet is betting across 3 related Iran markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt

$2,189 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven event trader buying Yes

Surface this because a high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large realized track record just made a sizable directional bet into a major geopolitical market after a sharp repricing.

  • This wallet has 628 resolved bets, wins 60% of them, and is up about $178k overall.
  • The trade was a sell of No at 33¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 67¢ on this binary market.
  • This market just swung hard with a 37.6-point move and nearly $196k traded in 24 hours, so the bettor is taking a clear view in a fast-moving news market.

$3,269 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

Profitable thesis trader

Profitable wallet with a 75% win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, buying No on a high-volume US-Iran diplomacy market despite a sharp recent price swing.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $535k across 40 settled markets
  • They have placed $21.4k across 5 related markets, which suggests a deliberate event thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • Bought No at 70¢ after a huge 54-point one-day move, showing conviction in a fast-moving news market

$4,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

3-wallet No cluster

Three wallets, including one with an 82% win rate, piled into No during a 65x volume spike as the market swung sharply lower, signaling coordinated conviction worth watching.

  • Three wallets bought $10.7k of No together, including a bettor who wins 82% of resolved trades.
  • The market saw a 65x volume spike and Yes fell 52.5% in a day, backing the move with real momentum.
  • Two of these wallets are serial cross-market traders with over $1.9M combined volume across dozens of events.

$10,687 on No

82% win-rate macro trader

A serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought No on a geopolitics market after a sharp one-day price swing, making this a credible signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 82% of their resolved trades across 257 bets and has tracked a broad 28-event thesis book
  • bullets not supported

$2,775 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

95% win-rate cross-market bettor

A very high-win-rate wallet is taking a directional view across related Iran diplomacy markets, making this modest trade worth watching despite the otherwise weak single-signal alert.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $43k overall.
  • They are betting across 2 related Iran diplomacy markets, which suggests a broader event thesis.
  • This trade effectively adds to No around 50¢, close to the current 52¢ market price.

$1,475 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

95% winner fading Yes

A proven sharp wallet with a 95% win rate is taking a directional view across related Iran diplomacy markets, and this sell converts into a buy on No around 41¢.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades with 229 wins and $43k profit
  • They are betting across 2 related markets on the same event, suggesting a broader thesis
  • Selling Yes at 59¢ is equivalent to buying No at 41¢, well below the current 48¢ No price

$1,180 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Proven event trader buying Yes

Profitable high-volume event trader with nearly 1,150 resolved bets bought into a geopolitics market at 83¢ and is already marked up as part of a broad cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor has 1,148 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $65.7k lifetime
  • They put $3.7k into Yes at 83¢ and the market has already moved up to 88¢
  • They trade across many related events and markets, suggesting a repeatable news-driven process rather than a one-off bet

$3,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $18,412 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $11,600 (86% win rate)
  3. 0x1521...f23e Yes, $10,000 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x8e5c...a68a No, $6,554 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x35bb...009b Yes, $5,000 (74% win rate)
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $4,893 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x5969...5bed No, $4,479 (90% win rate)
  8. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $4,114 (62% win rate)
  9. 0x7d56...4950 No, $4,034
  10. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $3,620 (51% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

1d$39,290 tracked11 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
18¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
84¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

8m ago

$4,132 on No at 83¢

83¢83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

27m ago

$3,274 on No at 82¢

82¢83¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

3h ago

$2,189 on No at 73¢

73¢83¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

6h ago

$3,269 on Yes at 67¢

67¢18¢49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

6h ago

$4,600 on No at 70¢

70¢83¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

6h ago

$10,687 on No at 60¢

60¢83¢23¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

7h ago

$2,775 on No at 54¢

54¢83¢29¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

9h ago

$1,475 on No at 50¢

50¢83¢33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

9h ago

$1,180 on No at 41¢

41¢83¢42¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

1d ago

$3,708 on Yes at 83¢

83¢18¢65¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

1d ago

$2,000 on No at 20¢

20¢83¢63¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter