US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, official meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders follow this market as a live gauge of expectations around US-Iran diplomacy and broader geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,241.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet contrarian
A 6-day-old wallet has already made five large flagged bets totaling $7.2k and is now taking a fresh $1.5k position against a fast-moving geopolitical market, suggesting repeat high-conviction trading worth watching.
- This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and put $7.2k to work
- They sold Yes at 40¢, which translates to buying No at 60¢ on a major geopolitics market
- The market is active and moving fast, up 31 points in a day, so this is a clear contrarian stance rather than routine whale flow
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 85% win rate sold No here, equivalent to buying Yes around 62¢, reinforcing a broader event-level thesis across 10 related markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime
- They have traded 10 markets tied to this same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Selling No at 38¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 62¢, close to the current market price
$1,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
3-wallet geopolitical NO cluster
Three wallets coordinated into No on a fast-moving geopolitics market during an 11.4x volume spike, including one bettor with an 82% win rate and another pair expressing the same view via selling Yes.
- Three wallets lined up on No for $5.8k as volume jumped 11.4x and the market swung hard in one day.
- One of the wallets wins 82% of resolved bets, while the other two have large positive lifetime P&L despite middling win rates.
- Two wallets expressed the same bearish view by selling Yes around 65-67¢, which translates to buying No around 33-35¢.
$5,837 on No
82% win-rate event specialist
A proven 82% win-rate cross-market trader put fresh money into a fast-moving geopolitics market during a major volume and price surge, making this worth surfacing despite the relatively small ticket size.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 261 markets and has traded 65 markets across 29 events.
- They bought into a strong move as this market's Yes price surged about 19 points with volume running 19.2x normal.
- This is a fresh new Yes position, not profit-taking, and they entered at 76¢ after previously closing a tiny earlier trade.
$3,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
3 profitable wallets piling into Yes
Three experienced profitable wallets bought Yes together into a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction despite only a moderate cluster score.
- Three profitable bettors bought Yes within minutes of each other for nearly $6k total.
- One wallet has 88% wins over 1,102 resolved bets, and the other two are also solidly profitable.
- The market jumped 45.5 points in a day, and two buys came at 47-55¢ versus 57¢ now.
$5,946 on Yes
3-wallet geopolitical cluster
Three wallets piled into No for $26.5k across related US-Iran markets, including one profitable high-volume bettor, signaling a coordinated geopolitical thesis despite mixed individual track records.
- Three wallets bought No for $26.5k in a short burst, pointing to a shared view across this US-Iran event.
- One wallet has 61% wins over 246 resolved bets and is up about $108k, giving the cluster at least one proven bettor.
- They entered No as high as 63¢ to 81¢ while the market now sits near 54¢, showing aggressive conviction but worse follow-through after entry.
$26,517 on No
85% win-rate macro bettor
A proven 85% win-rate trader with over 1,000 resolved bets is adding a fresh cross-market position in a geopolitically plausible market at 20¢, which has already moved to 24¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades across 1,045 resolved markets
- They have traded 214 markets across 136 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process
- Bought Yes at 20¢ and the market is already at 24¢, implying they saw this as mispriced
$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
90% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-win-rate wallet with a long history is making another same-event geopolitical bet, buying No at 89% after a sharp one-day drop in Yes odds.
- This bettor wins 90% of their resolved trades across 175 markets
- They have bet across 6 related markets in the same event, showing a clear thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought No at 89¢ after the market moved sharply, backing the view that a meeting still will not happen
$1,102 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A historically strong wallet with a 90% win rate is buying No at 87¢ in a geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day drop, suggesting a disciplined thesis worth tracking despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 90% of their trades with 123 wins in 137 resolved markets
- They bought No at 87¢ after the market dropped 19.5% in a day, backing the current move
- The wallet is also trading related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xeed5...1a33 — No, $31,479 (67% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $24,664 (70% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $20,590 (68% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $17,406 (71% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $15,875 (88% win rate)
- 0x3c0c...fbb7 — Yes, $15,774 (60% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — No, $14,814 (100% win rate)
- 0xc8ae...93ea — Yes, $12,636
- 0xc0ff...9953 — No, $11,208 (51% win rate)
- 0x61e7...6e8b — No, $10,309 (50% win rate)
