Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach an official, publicly announced, mutually agreed ceasefire by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” if a general pause in the conflict is agreed before the deadline, even if the ceasefire begins later; narrow or limited ceasefires do not qualify. PolySpotter is tracking $116,250 in smart money activity and recent signals include sharp Yes buying as well as a NO re-entry from a serial cross-market bettor.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $169,774.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, World, Politics, Foreign Policy, Trump-Zelenskyy, Trump-Zelensky, Geopolitics, Ukraine
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market bettor re-enters NO
Large fresh No re-entry by a serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved-market win rate on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 83% of 155 resolved markets across a broad cross-market history.
- They bought $38K of No at 90¢ after previously closing a larger No position, suggesting fresh conviction.
- This single trade was nearly half of the market’s last 24h volume.
$38,444 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
83% serial trader buys YES
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate effectively bought Yes at 10¢ during a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 83% of 154 resolved markets and has traded across 73 events.
- They effectively bought Yes at 10¢ with a $71k position, below the current 12¢ market price.
- Market volume spiked 114x versus its historical pace, suggesting broader positioning around this thesis.
$70,977 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$2,129 | Wallet win rate: 50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$4,701 | Wallet win rate: 68%
Sharp bettor buys NO
A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate and nearly $1.48M in realized profit made a sizable directional bet on a major geopolitics market, which is notable despite the otherwise routine market conditions.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up about $1.48M lifetime
- They just put $10.4k into NO at 90¢ on a major geopolitics market
- Buying at 90¢ suggests they see ceasefire odds as even lower than the market implies
$10,372 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
75% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is making a fresh bullish ceasefire bet by selling No at 88¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, which stands out even without stronger market-wide signals.
- This bettor has won 219 of 291 resolved markets and is up about $188k lifetime
- The trade is effectively a BUY on Yes at 12¢, a cheap entry if they think ceasefire odds are understated
- They trade across 81 related markets and 59 events, suggesting a broad event-driven process rather than a one-off punt
$4,573 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
13-wallet cluster flips Yes
A 13-wallet linked cluster is leaning the same way in a major geopolitics market, and these three wallets just sold No around 85-86¢—equivalent to buying Yes at 14-15¢—with one wallet showing a strong long-term track record.
- A 13-wallet linked cluster is active here, and 3 of those wallets moved $21.5k in the same direction within minutes.
- The biggest wallet wins 71% of 682 resolved bets and is up $488k lifetime.
- These sells of No at 85-86¢ translate to buying Yes around 14-15¢, a cheap entry if they expect ceasefire odds to keep rising.
$21,500 on Yes
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets piled into the same low-priced Yes side, led by a bettor with an 88% win rate and nearly $1.0M in profit across extensive cross-market trading.
- A bettor who wins 88% of their trades and is up about $990k led this 3-wallet push into Yes.
- Three wallets bought the same side within 2 minutes, putting $6.5k behind a low-probability 12-15¢ entry.
- The market is moving up already, with Yes up 4 points in a day and 6 points in a week.
$6,479 on Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 73% win rate and $604k profit is taking a fresh $5k Yes position at 10¢ in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 73% of 488 resolved trades and is up about $605k lifetime
- They have traded 339 markets across 255 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- Buying Yes at 10¢ means they only need the ceasefire odds to be meaningfully higher than the market's current 10% view
$5,044 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate and $605k in profits just bought Yes at 9¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a notable low-price conviction bet worth watching.
- This bettor has won 73% of 488 resolved trades and is up about $605k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events at scale, with $5.6M deployed over 255 events
- Bought Yes at 9¢ in a deep geopolitics market, implying they see the ceasefire odds as materially above the market
$5,556 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xe339...e01b — Outcome 93730658, $7,493,500
- 0x7f78...c406 — Outcome 93730658, $2,900,000
- 0xefcd...dd8b — Outcome 93730658, $1,201,000
- 0xf525...008e — Outcome 93730658, $1,000,000
- 0xdc0c...b252 — Outcome 93730658, $997,000
- 0x502b...e0e4 — Outcome 93730658, $647,600
- 0xa119...0173 — Outcome 93730658, $643,500
- 0x63e7...8f59 — Outcome 93730658, $498,000
- 0xb2ba...51ed — Outcome 93730658, $433,000
- 0x8561...0e7f — Outcome 93730658, $432,000
Related Theses
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