What does this Israel-Lebanon withdrawal market measure?

It measures whether Israel announces that all Israeli ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the December 31, 2026 deadline.

What would make the market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if Israel announces that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.

Would a planned withdrawal count as Yes?

No. An announcement describing a planned or future withdrawal does not satisfy the market’s resolution criteria.

Can the market resolve Yes if Israeli forces later conduct ground incursions?

Yes. Under the stated rules, an announcement of withdrawal can qualify even if ground incursions continue afterward or some Lebanese territory remains under Israeli control.

When does the Israel-Lebanon withdrawal market resolve?

The scheduled resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes based on an announcement of withdrawal; a planned or future withdrawal does not qualify, and the market’s current Yes/No odds are shown on PolySpotter.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,036.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitics regular buying NO

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No, with supporting price impact and related-market positioning.

This bettor is up $347k lifetime across 931 resolved trades.
They are a frequent cross-market trader, with 102 markets across 44 events tracked.
Their No buy at 73¢ has already moved to 76¢, with a sharp upward price impact signal.

$1,741 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitics market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.

This bettor has won 71% of 105 resolved bets and is up $323k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $640k deployed across 65 markets in 34 events.
They bought No at 31¢ in a thin market with a wide spread, and No is now around 60¢.

$3,408 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

No breakout buyer

Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.

No has surged sharply, with Yes down 14 percentage points over the last day.
This wallet is modestly profitable, up $6.3K across 52 resolved bets.
The buyer paid 74¢ for No, implying confidence Israel will not fully withdraw by the deadline.

$1,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

No breakout buyer

Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.

No has surged sharply, with Yes down 14 percentage points over the last day.
This wallet is modestly profitable, up $6.3K across 52 resolved bets.
The buyer paid 74¢ for No, implying confidence Israel will not fully withdraw by the deadline.

$1,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable geopolitics regular buying NO

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No, with supporting price impact and related-market positioning.

This bettor is up $347k lifetime across 931 resolved trades.
They are a frequent cross-market trader, with 102 markets across 44 events tracked.
Their No buy at 73¢ has already moved to 76¢, with a sharp upward price impact signal.

$3,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitics market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.

This bettor has won 71% of 105 resolved bets and is up $323k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $640k deployed across 65 markets in 34 events.
They bought No at 31¢ in a thin market with a wide spread, and No is now around 60¢.

$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%