What is the Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026 Polymarket about?

This market forecasts whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanon by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.

What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if Israel announces that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory by the specified deadline. A planned or future withdrawal announcement alone is not enough.

When does the Israel Lebanon withdrawal market resolve?

The listed resolution date is December 31, 2026. The key deadline in the market rules is 11:59 PM ET on that date.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,015 in smart money and one signal for this market. Recent alert headlines include a profitable geopolitics trader and NO-side buying activity.

Where can I track Israel Lebanon withdrawal prediction market odds?

You can follow this market on PolySpotter to monitor Polymarket odds, smart money signals, and trading activity related to whether Israel withdraws ground forces from Lebanon by the end of 2026.

Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all Israeli ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” based on an Israeli announcement of withdrawal, even if control issues or later incursions remain disputed; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,015 in smart money activity, with recent signals leaning toward NO buyers in this geopolitics market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,887.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

No breakout buyer

Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.

No has surged sharply, with Yes down 14 percentage points over the last day.
This wallet is modestly profitable, up $6.3K across 52 resolved bets.
The buyer paid 74¢ for No, implying confidence Israel will not fully withdraw by the deadline.

$1,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

No breakout buyer

Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.

No has surged sharply, with Yes down 14 percentage points over the last day.
This wallet is modestly profitable, up $6.3K across 52 resolved bets.
The buyer paid 74¢ for No, implying confidence Israel will not fully withdraw by the deadline.

$1,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Profitable geopolitics regular buying NO

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No, with supporting price impact and related-market positioning.

This bettor is up $347k lifetime across 931 resolved trades.
They are a frequent cross-market trader, with 102 markets across 44 events tracked.
Their No buy at 73¢ has already moved to 76¢, with a sharp upward price impact signal.

$3,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitics market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.

This bettor has won 71% of 105 resolved bets and is up $323k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $640k deployed across 65 markets in 34 events.
They bought No at 31¢ in a thin market with a wide spread, and No is now around 60¢.

$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%