Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether the finalized 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch for July 31, 2026 will be between 0 and 20. It resolves after the July 31, 2026 data is finalized, using Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” data for eligible vessel types. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,064 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,064.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Contrarian repeat trader adding

A high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a contrarian No position after a major price collapse in a thin Strait of Hormuz transit market.

  • This bettor has traded across 128 markets with $1.15M in activity and is up about $43.7K overall.
  • They are adding to an existing No position after No fell from roughly 88¢ to 35¢.
  • The market is fairly thin, so a $1.1K add is meaningful against about $5.3K of 24h volume.

$1,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $10,130
  2. 0x4478...02a4 No, $4,000 (59% win rate)
  3. 0xff06...2f60 Yes, $3,832 (63% win rate)
  4. 0xd426...334a No, $3,686 (46% win rate)
  5. 0xe1b3...1426 Yes, $2,849 (67% win rate)
  6. 0x1733...9411 Yes, $2,063 (71% win rate)
  7. 0xff52...4546 Yes, $1,700
  8. 0xd01f...74ab Yes, $1,507
  9. 0x9d73...216b No, $1,407 (73% win rate)
  10. 0x524d...4495 Yes, $1,345 (75% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 10 related markets

Iran peace deal by mid-June

Covers 9 related markets

US-Iran talks happen by April

Covers 6 related markets

No US-Iran meeting expected

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz traffic hits forty ships

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz traffic normalizes by May

Covers 1 related market

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

12dAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?$1,064 tracked1 signalOilIranHormuzStrait of HormuzGeopolitics
Yes
85¢
No
15¢

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
86¢
61¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

4d ago

$1,064 on No at 35¢

35¢15¢20¢

Related Theses