US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026. It resolves Yes only if authorized officials from both governments meet in an official diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. Traders use this market to gauge the odds of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,617.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

97% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate and nearly $68k in profits is adding a fresh position in a geopolitics market at 81¢, making this a credible follow despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $68k profit across nearly $1.44M invested
  • They have traded 204 markets across 152 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
  • Bought Yes at 81¢ in a major geopolitics market, implying they still see value even with the market already near 80%

$2,685 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

93% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A bettor with an exceptional long-term record is buying into a geopolitics market as part of a broader 4-market event thesis, which makes this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 808 resolved markets and is up $57k lifetime
  • They are betting across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Yes at 64¢ after a sharp 31.5-point one-day drop, signaling they may see the selloff as overdone

$1,442 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

97% win-rate macro bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 97% win rate bought into a geopolitics market, making this wallet worth following despite the modest single-trade size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $68k profit across nearly $1.44M invested.
  • They have traded 202 markets across 151 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 90¢ in a real-world geopolitics market, signaling confidence even at a high implied probability.

$4,491 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $28,720 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xa771...42d1 No, $25,400 (67% win rate)
  3. 0xabb4...7b57 Yes, $12,400 (83% win rate)
  4. 0x454e...36cb No, $10,000
  5. 0xd286...2322 No, $9,999
  6. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $9,646 (86% win rate)
  7. 0x1d55...f488 Yes, $9,540 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x682e...70bd No, $8,621
  9. 0xdd08...5ee9 Yes, $8,606 (97% win rate)
  10. 0x20d9...5490 No, $7,407 (71% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

9d$8,617 tracked3 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
79¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

16h ago

$2,685 on Yes at 81¢

81¢86¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,442 on Yes at 64¢

64¢86¢22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

3d ago

$4,491 on Yes at 90¢

90¢86¢4¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting by April 2026 Odds | PolySpotter