Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,872.
Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable geopolitical-event trader is adding to a cross-market No thesis as the market moves sharply toward No near the deadline.
- This bettor is up $94k lifetime and has won 13 of 18 resolved bets.
- They have put $5.4k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this US-Iran event.
- No jumped 13.5 percentage points in under 4 minutes, with Yes down 23 points over the day.
$1,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
High-score coordinated Yes flow from five wallets, including several highly profitable serial traders, amid a major volume spike and recent price movement.
- Five wallets put $19.3K behind Yes, mostly by selling No into a fast-moving market.
- Several bettors have strong records, including wallets winning 97%, 89%, and 88% of resolved trades.
- One newer wallet has already been flagged repeatedly and is up $7.6K while scaling into this direction.
$19,262 on Yes
88% winner flips Yes
Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate flipped into Yes ahead of a fast-moving diplomatic-news market.
- This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 22¢ and the market has already moved to 35¢, suggesting the trade caught early momentum.
- This is a serial cross-market trader across 30 events with $220K flagged in similar positioning.
$7,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable trader buying NO momentum
A highly profitable, high-volume trader bought No into a sharp momentum move on a time-sensitive US-Iran agreement market.
- This trader is up $1.47M lifetime across $85.7M in bets.
- They bought No at 58¢ as No jumped 13.5% in about four minutes.
- The market is close to its deadline, so new diplomatic-release information could matter quickly.
$3,399 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable event traders align
Three profitable, high-volume event traders are aligned on Yes in a diplomacy market with strong daily momentum, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.
- Three profitable high-volume bettors all bought Yes around 41¢.
- One is a serial cross-market trader with $5.3M traded across 117 markets and a 63% win rate.
- Yes is up 24 points over the past day, and this market resolves soon.
$4,496 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a near-deadline US-Iran agreement disclosure market, with small linked-wallet corroboration.
- This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across 1,369 resolved markets.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with 112 events and $7.7M in tracked activity.
- Buying Yes at 42¢ ahead of a near-term deadline implies they see meaningful upside.
$1,428 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Whale-led No cluster
High-scoring No cluster with linked wallets, a profitable repeat new wallet, and a $1.16M lifetime-P&L trader moving together near deadline.
- A bettor up $1.16M lifetime joined the No side alongside two other wallets.
- Two linked wallets are moving together, and one new repeat bettor is already up $4.5K.
- The trades pushed No up about 13 points in under 4 minutes as the deadline approaches.
$4,763 on No
High-win wallet flips No
Surface due to a high-win wallet with positive P&L reversing into No on a politically sensitive market while No moved sharply upward.
- This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades and is up about $11.5K lifetime.
- They closed a prior Yes position and bought $3.3K of No at 63¢, signaling a clear reversal.
- No jumped 13.5 percentage points in under 4 minutes, matching the direction of this trade.
$3,303 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp wallet flips to No
Three wallets are aligned on No, including a bettor with a 92% record who flipped from a prior Yes position, and their flow helped move No sharply higher.
- A bettor who wins 92% of resolved bets bought No after previously holding Yes on this market.
- Three wallets put $6.4K on the same side, pushing No up about 17 percentage points.
- The market is near deadline, so No at roughly mid-50s is a direct bet that the agreement text will not be public in time.
$6,395 on No
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a high-volume diplomatic market near resolution, despite a short-term pullback after a major 24h move.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $269k lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 98 events with $8.4M total volume.
- They bought Yes at 83¢, and the market is still below that entry after a huge 62-point 24h move.
$4,790 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x138f...657e — Outcome 91230992, $973,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x530c...89f1 — Outcome 91230992, $167,282 (89% win rate)
- 0xab12...3683 — Outcome 91230992, $150,000
- 0xbf02...e58f — Outcome 91230992, $50,000
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 91230992, $30,006 (23% win rate)
- 0x5139...9402 — Outcome 91230992, $25,516
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 91230992, $24,633 (43% win rate)
- 0xadbc...81e8 — Outcome 91230992, $20,000
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 91230992, $19,358 (57% win rate)
- 0x34da...3435 — Outcome 91230992, $15,000 (58% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Iran talks happen after April
Covers 12 related markets