Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,872.

Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market No bettor

Profitable geopolitical-event trader is adding to a cross-market No thesis as the market moves sharply toward No near the deadline.

  • This bettor is up $94k lifetime and has won 13 of 18 resolved bets.
  • They have put $5.4k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this US-Iran event.
  • No jumped 13.5 percentage points in under 4 minutes, with Yes down 23 points over the day.

$1,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Sharp cluster buying Yes

High-score coordinated Yes flow from five wallets, including several highly profitable serial traders, amid a major volume spike and recent price movement.

  • Five wallets put $19.3K behind Yes, mostly by selling No into a fast-moving market.
  • Several bettors have strong records, including wallets winning 97%, 89%, and 88% of resolved trades.
  • One newer wallet has already been flagged repeatedly and is up $7.6K while scaling into this direction.

$19,262 on Yes

88% winner flips Yes

Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate flipped into Yes ahead of a fast-moving diplomatic-news market.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 565 resolved trades and is up $339K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 22¢ and the market has already moved to 35¢, suggesting the trade caught early momentum.
  • This is a serial cross-market trader across 30 events with $220K flagged in similar positioning.

$7,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable trader buying NO momentum

A highly profitable, high-volume trader bought No into a sharp momentum move on a time-sensitive US-Iran agreement market.

  • This trader is up $1.47M lifetime across $85.7M in bets.
  • They bought No at 58¢ as No jumped 13.5% in about four minutes.
  • The market is close to its deadline, so new diplomatic-release information could matter quickly.

$3,399 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable event traders align

Three profitable, high-volume event traders are aligned on Yes in a diplomacy market with strong daily momentum, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.

  • Three profitable high-volume bettors all bought Yes around 41¢.
  • One is a serial cross-market trader with $5.3M traded across 117 markets and a 63% win rate.
  • Yes is up 24 points over the past day, and this market resolves soon.

$4,496 on Yes

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a near-deadline US-Iran agreement disclosure market, with small linked-wallet corroboration.

  • This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across 1,369 resolved markets.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with 112 events and $7.7M in tracked activity.
  • Buying Yes at 42¢ ahead of a near-term deadline implies they see meaningful upside.

$1,428 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Whale-led No cluster

High-scoring No cluster with linked wallets, a profitable repeat new wallet, and a $1.16M lifetime-P&L trader moving together near deadline.

  • A bettor up $1.16M lifetime joined the No side alongside two other wallets.
  • Two linked wallets are moving together, and one new repeat bettor is already up $4.5K.
  • The trades pushed No up about 13 points in under 4 minutes as the deadline approaches.

$4,763 on No

High-win wallet flips No

Surface due to a high-win wallet with positive P&L reversing into No on a politically sensitive market while No moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades and is up about $11.5K lifetime.
  • They closed a prior Yes position and bought $3.3K of No at 63¢, signaling a clear reversal.
  • No jumped 13.5 percentage points in under 4 minutes, matching the direction of this trade.

$3,303 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Sharp wallet flips to No

Three wallets are aligned on No, including a bettor with a 92% record who flipped from a prior Yes position, and their flow helped move No sharply higher.

  • A bettor who wins 92% of resolved bets bought No after previously holding Yes on this market.
  • Three wallets put $6.4K on the same side, pushing No up about 17 percentage points.
  • The market is near deadline, so No at roughly mid-50s is a direct bet that the agreement text will not be public in time.

$6,395 on No

Proven cross-market sharp

Proven profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a high-volume diplomatic market near resolution, despite a short-term pullback after a major 24h move.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $269k lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 98 events with $8.4M total volume.
  • They bought Yes at 83¢, and the market is still below that entry after a huge 62-point 24h move.

$4,790 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x138f...657e Outcome 91230992, $973,000 (67% win rate)
  2. 0x530c...89f1 Outcome 91230992, $167,282 (89% win rate)
  3. 0xab12...3683 Outcome 91230992, $150,000
  4. 0xbf02...e58f Outcome 91230992, $50,000
  5. 0xfd66...fb6d Outcome 91230992, $30,006 (23% win rate)
  6. 0x5139...9402 Outcome 91230992, $25,516
  7. 0xd426...334a Outcome 91230992, $24,633 (43% win rate)
  8. 0xadbc...81e8 Outcome 91230992, $20,000
  9. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 91230992, $19,358 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x34da...3435 Outcome 91230992, $15,000 (58% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal likely soon

Covers 10 related markets

US-Iran deal timing arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran closes airspace late June

Covers 7 related markets

Trump lifts Hormuz blockade

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran talks happen after April

Covers 12 related markets

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

ResolvedUS-Iran deal text released by...?$67,872 tracked15 signalsGeopoliticsPeace DealU.S. x IranIranPolitics

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$1,088 on No at 88¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$19,262 on Yes at 34¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$7,247 on Yes at 22¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$3,399 on No at 58¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$4,496 on Yes at 41¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$1,428 on Yes at 42¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$4,763 on No at 61¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$3,303 on No at 63¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$6,395 on No at 55¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$4,790 on Yes at 83¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$1,776 on Yes at 22¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$1,425 on Yes at 22¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$2,366 on No at 79¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$1,680 on Yes at 22¢

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

14d ago

$4,454 on No at 90¢

Related Theses