Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,060.
Notable Trades
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A 9-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across this event and just sold No at 42¢, suggesting an aggressive early-positioning trader worth monitoring despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling about $25k
- They sold No at 42¢, which is effectively a bet on Yes around 58¢ while Yes now trades at 64¢
- The market is liquid but this is still a sizable fresh position from a new wallet already active across related Iran markets
$3,709 on Yes
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A 7-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across this event and just bought No at 41¢ on a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already triggered 13 large-bet alerts for $183k total, showing unusually aggressive early conviction
- They bought No at 41¢ in a major geopolitics market with over $100k of 24-hour volume, so this looks like a deliberate thesis rather than a random thin-market punt
- The wallet is also betting across 2 related Iran-operation markets, which suggests a broader event view instead of a one-off trade
$4,545 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A very new wallet has already made 12 large flagged bets totaling $178.7k and is taking another sizable contrarian position on a major geopolitical market.
- This 6-day-old wallet has already made 12 large flagged bets totaling about $178.7k
- The bettor bought NO at 39¢ on a major geopolitics market, a price that now looks slightly better at 36¢
- This is not a tiny test trade: nearly $4.8k went in despite no resolved track record yet
$4,805 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $274,634 (72% win rate)
- 0x3541...462e — No, $82,342 (47% win rate)
- 0x7a16...33db — No, $38,850
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $34,691 (100% win rate)
- 0x188e...70d8 — No, $29,697
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $19,627
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $18,049
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — Yes, $15,566 (83% win rate)
- 0x9e74...6d51 — No, $14,612
- 0x174b...5a55 — No, $14,351