Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $275,149.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
82% winner cross-market thesis
A highly profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is opening a fresh long-shot Yes position as part of a $42k cross-market thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $624k across nearly $12M invested
- They placed $42k across 4 related Iran-operation markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
- This is a fresh Yes position at 3¢ after previously closing a No trade, so they appear to be repositioning into a cheap upside outcome
$4,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial event trader buys Yes
A repeat cross-market trader with a decent resolved track record just opened a fresh $7.1k Yes position at 7-8¢ in a major geopolitical event market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a new low-priced thesis across this event.
- This wallet has traded 49 related markets across 29 events and wins 69% of resolved bets.
- They just opened a fresh $7.1k Yes position at 7-8¢ after prior positions here were already closed.
- Buying at 8¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market implies they think the chance of an official end announcement is meaningfully higher than the market does.
$7,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
79% win-rate event bettor
A profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is expressing the same event thesis across multiple related markets, and this trade converts to a fresh buy on a low-priced outcome at 14¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $10.7k overall.
- They are betting the same thesis across 2 related markets with nearly $13k deployed.
- Selling No at 86¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢, a cheap entry if they are right.
$5,888 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Pro event trader thesis
A high-volume serial event trader with 925 resolved bets and $244k profit is building a consistent cross-market thesis on this Iran event by buying No at 84¢.
- This bettor has 925 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $244k lifetime
- They have placed nearly $50k across 5 related markets in this same event, showing a deliberate event-wide view
- Buying No at 84¢ suggests they think no official end-of-operations announcement arrives by April 30
$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
86% winner, event-wide thesis
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $1.26M in profits is taking a fresh $4.1k Yes position as part of a broader 5-market thesis in this event.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime.
- They have traded 149 markets across 93 events, and now hold a 5-market position set on this same event.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ after the market fell 26.5 points in a week, suggesting they see the odds as too low.
$4,132 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 919 resolved bets and $221k profit is extending a broad event thesis by buying No in this Trump-Iran market despite already elevated odds.
- This bettor has 919 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $221k overall.
- They have traded 5 markets in this same event for $49k total, which suggests a deliberate multi-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 87¢ even after a sharp move, showing they still see the chance of an April 30 end announcement as very low.
$1,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Pro cross-market trader flips Yes
A proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 67% win rate appears to be flipping from a previously closed No position into Yes across this event, making this a notable thesis-driven move despite the modest size.
- This bettor has a 67% win rate across 1,288 resolved markets and is up $223k lifetime.
- They traded 4 related markets in the same event for $41k total, suggesting a broader event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 60¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 40¢, a fresh reversal after closing a much larger No position.
$1,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
82% winner reloading No
A highly profitable wallet with an 82% win rate reopened a sizable No position across multiple related Iran markets, signaling a deliberate event-wide thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 82% of 823 resolved trades and is up $605k lifetime
- They are betting across 3 related Iran markets with about $24k total, showing a broader event thesis
- This is a fresh No buy after previously closing an earlier position, re-entering around 66¢
$7,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate is taking a fresh pro-Yes position in a major geopolitical event market during a strong event-wide volume surge.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime
- They have traded 144 markets across 90 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Their sale of No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 37¢, close to the current 38-39¢ market
$1,849 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable event specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.37M P&L opened a fresh Yes position at 34¢ on a major geopolitics market after previously trading both sides, making this a noteworthy thesis bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, a 64% win rate, and $1.37M in profit
- They regularly trade related markets across the same event — 53 markets over 38 events suggests a repeatable edge
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 34¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they see the end-of-operations chance as meaningfully higher
$2,999 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x6e02...bfce — Yes, $684,949 (59% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $219,664 (69% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $58,412 (53% win rate)
- 0xf0d9...e4ee — Yes, $26,687 (63% win rate)
- 0xe885...38ef — Yes, $22,916 (43% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $20,851 (57% win rate)
- 0x79bf...96a8 — Yes, $19,000
- 0xa372...1b3e — Yes, $17,392 (14% win rate)
- 0x4ec3...f757 — Yes, $11,939 (22% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $10,000 (59% win rate)
