Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
This Polymarket tracks whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will officially announce that military operations against Iran, begun on February 28, 2026, have ended by April 30, 2026. To resolve Yes, there must be a clear public statement confirming the operation has concluded; leaks, unnamed sources, or informal comments do not count. PolySpotter also tracks $105,243 in smart money activity across 13 signals on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
13 smart money signals detected, totaling $105,243.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet thesis bet
A repeat new wallet with over $51k in flagged activity sold No at 68¢ here, which converts to a meaningful Yes buy at 32¢ and fits a broader thesis across related markets.
- This 23-day-old wallet has already made over $51k in flagged bets across 7 alerts, showing unusually fast and confident activity.
- This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 32¢, a cheap entry for a headline-driven geopolitical market.
- The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off punt.
$10,622 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Repeat new-wallet whale
A still-new wallet has repeatedly put sizable money to work across this event and just added a nearly $10k No bet, suggesting sustained conviction rather than a one-off punt.
- This 21-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and put $37k into flagged trades
- They just bought nearly $10k of No at 69¢, a sizable position with clear conviction
- The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event, showing a broader thesis rather than a single random trade
$9,845 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
Profitable geopolitical grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $272k profit is taking the No side in a major geopolitics market at 66¢.
- This bettor has won 71% of 604 resolved trades and is up about $272k lifetime
- They have traded 404 markets across 294 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 66¢ in a liquid geopolitics market after a 13-point weekly drop, showing willingness to lean against a fast-moving headline market
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A bettor with a 91% win rate and strong edge made a fresh $3.5k buy on No in a major geopolitics market at 58¢, making this a credible sharp-flow signal despite only one detection flag.
- This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and has beaten market odds by a wide margin
- They just put $3.5k on No at 58¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, suggesting real conviction rather than noise
- Buying at 58¢ means they see the chance of no official end announcement by April 30 as meaningfully higher than the market implies
$3,472 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A profitable bettor with a strong edge-adjusted 79% win rate opened a fresh $5,000 Yes position near market price on a major geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44.7k overall
- They bought $5,000 of Yes at 48¢, close to the current 46-47¢ market, showing fresh conviction
- The market is deep and active, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a random thin-market punt
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
A proven 83% win-rate trader with nearly $1.0M of cross-market event exposure is expressing a broad thesis across five related Iran-operation markets, and this trade converts to buying No at 54¢.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 233 markets and has deployed about $963k across 25 events
- They have put $82.5k across 5 related markets in this same event, pointing to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade
- This specific trade was a sell of Yes at 46¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 54¢
$7,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets aligned on No, including an 88% win-rate trader and a repeat new wallet, are fading a sharp 1-day rally in a high-volume geopolitics market.
- An 88% win-rate bettor with 161 resolved trades and $359k profit is part of this No cluster
- Three wallets put $6.4k on No together as the market jumped 24.5 points in a day, suggesting they are fading the move
- One of the buyers is a 9-day-old wallet already making repeated $3.3k-sized bets across 5 positions
$6,369 on No
5-wallet NO cluster
Five wallets put $30.6k on No in a geopolitics market, including multiple profitable bettors and a new repeat wallet, making this coordinated flow worth watching.
- Five wallets all piled into No for $30.6k, a strong one-sided signal on a news-driven market.
- The group includes proven winners, including one wallet up $1.01M lifetime and another winning 97% of resolved bets.
- Most buys landed at 60-62¢, suggesting they see No as still underpriced even after the move.
$25,678 on No
4-wallet Yes cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes as the market repriced sharply, including two profitable traders and one very large proven bettor, making this coordinated directional flow worth watching despite mixed historical quality across the cluster.
- Four wallets lined up on Yes for $11.2k, including a bettor up $893k lifetime and another winning 79% of resolved bets
- Most of the flow came from selling No at 24-25¢, which is the same as buying Yes around 75-76¢, showing strong conviction during a fast repricing
- This market moved hard over the last day, with Yes up 24.5 points, so the cluster is trading into a live momentum shift rather than a quiet market
$11,196 on Yes
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
This wallet is building a broad cross-market thesis around the same Iran event and has an unusually strong 88% hit rate across those related markets, making this fresh $8.4k No bet worth watching.
- This wallet is betting across 4 related Iran markets and has won 88% of those event-linked trades
- The new $8.4k buy on No came at 49¢, near even odds, suggesting they see the end-by-April deadline as overpriced
- This is fresh conviction in a major news market with deep volume, not routine profit-taking
$8,420 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $368,693 (71% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $86,115 (62% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — No, $49,077 (67% win rate)
- 0x7a16...33db — No, $38,850
- 0x8cce...5c11 — No, $27,960 (97% win rate)
- 0xf0d9...e4ee — Yes, $26,687
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $21,355 (71% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $20,432 (42% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $20,000 (55% win rate)
- 0x46d3...62e0 — No, $20,000 (67% win rate)
