Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $54,001.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Proven macro thesis trader
Profitable high-volume trader with a long cross-market track record reopened a cheap Yes position after previously closing one, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than random flow.
- This bettor has 894 resolved bets, a 64% win rate, and over $1.3M in profit
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 59 markets across 41 events for $2.4M total
- They reopened Yes at 7¢ after previously trading this market, a small-price entry that offers outsized upside if their thesis is right
$4,076 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 2-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets totaling over $112k and just added another $4.5k into No on a major geopolitics market, which is notable despite lacking resolved history.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times for large bets totaling about $112.6k
- This is a fresh $4.5k buy on No in a major geopolitics market, suggesting strong conviction rather than routine activity
- The trader entered around 71¢ while No still trades near 72¢, showing willingness to keep sizing into the same view
$4,497 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp bettor buys No
A wallet with an 80% hit rate bought No into a 60.8x volume spike on a geopolitically important market, suggesting informed directional conviction despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $7.6k overall.
- They bought No at 73¢ during a 60.8x burst in market volume, showing fresh conviction on a major geopolitical question.
- The market is liquid enough that this looks like a deliberate directional bet, not just noise in a tiny market.
$4,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation failed
$2,027 | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable event specialist
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader reopened a fresh Yes position in a geopolitics market after previously trading it successfully, suggesting a renewed thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 64% of 887 resolved markets and is up $1.37M lifetime
- They trade across related event markets at scale: 53 markets over 38 events and nearly $2.0M tracked
- This is a fresh Yes position at 35¢ after previously closing an earlier stake, with the market up 26% in a week
$1,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
97% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is buying No on a geopolitics market after a sharp one-day move, making this a follow-worthy thesis despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades, with 189 wins and $68k profit across 195 bets
- They trade heavily across related markets — 152 events and 204 markets — which suggests a repeatable event-trading edge
- They bought No at 71¢ after the market fell 14.8 points in a day, backing the current 70% No view in a major geopolitical market
$1,721 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
3-wallet No cluster
Three wallets piled into No during a 39.8x volume spike, led by a large profitable bettor, creating coordinated bearish flow against a fast-rising geopolitical market.
- Three wallets all bet No within minutes, totaling $10.5k during a 39.8x volume spike.
- The biggest buyer has made 323 resolved bets and is up about $762k lifetime.
- They bought No at 41¢ while the market had just surged, and No now trades near 46¢.
$10,478 on No
Sharp bettor flips to No
A proven sharp wallet with an 88% win rate flipped from an earlier Yes position into No at 39¢ on a fast-moving geopolitics market, creating a clear contrarian thesis worth watching.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime
- They bought No at 39¢ after previously closing a Yes position, signaling a real view change rather than routine profit-taking
- The market has surged 24 points in a day, so this sharp trader is fading a strong move at relatively cheap No odds
$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
88% winner flips to No
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader flipped from a previously closed cheap Yes position into a fresh No buy at 39¢ on a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a notable thesis trade worth following.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They are an active cross-market event trader with 50 markets across 26 events, which suggests a repeatable macro edge.
- This is a fresh No position at 39¢ after fully closing an earlier Yes bet bought at 28¢, showing a real thesis change rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,166 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
87% win-rate contrarian
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate bought No at 39¢ against a fast-rising geopolitics market, making this a credible contrarian signal worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $393k lifetime
- They trade across 48 related markets in 26 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in news-driven markets
- They bought No at 39¢ while the market was surging, and that price is now 33¢
$1,945 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10622085, $52,531 (69% win rate)
- 0xb698...976a — Outcome 10622085, $40,000
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 10622085, $27,854 (45% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 10622085, $9,138 (36% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10622085, $9,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 10622085, $7,841 (39% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Outcome 10622085, $5,555 (23% win rate)
- 0x5835...9404 — Outcome 10622085, $5,462
- 0x47f5...934d — Outcome 10622085, $5,422 (33% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10622085, $5,329 (84% win rate)
