Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026. A Yes outcome can come from a unilateral Iranian announcement or an agreement involving the U.S. or Israel, as long as the pledge is public. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity on this geopolitics market, including recent signals from a 77% hit-rate geopolitical bettor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,525.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear

Notable Trades

77% hit-rate geopolitical bettor

A very experienced cross-market trader with a 77% hit rate bought No on a geopolitics market that has been moving sharply, making this a credible thesis trade despite the modest size.

  • This wallet has won 765 of 991 resolved bets, a 77% hit rate across 244 markets
  • They bought No at 87¢ on a live geopolitics market after a 15-point one-day move, showing a clear view against the recent surge
  • The market is still fairly wide at 14¢ bid versus 25¢ ask, so this trader was willing to pay up for conviction

$2,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $10,758 (66% win rate)
  2. 0x3d18...1160 No, $5,745 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xbdd2...0bd8 No, $3,105 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x9d73...216b No, $2,909 (77% win rate)
  5. 0xd2b3...0b0f Yes, $2,890
  6. 0x73d2...f9b7 No, $2,789 (76% win rate)
  7. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $2,456 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x0562...9d66 Yes, $2,400 (42% win rate)
  9. 0x4ac9...cf1a No, $2,131 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xfcdd...c3c0 Yes, $2,000

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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

21d$2,525 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

2h ago

$2,525 on No at 87¢

87¢83¢4¢

Related Theses

Iran Uranium Surrender Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter