Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,173.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into No

A proven high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $3,154 to an existing No position at 83¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $109,593 lifetime.
  • They added $3,154 to an existing No position, bringing their total exposure to more than $11,500.
  • The wallet has traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.

$3,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Proven bettor scaling into No

A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge added $4,549 to No in a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of 37 resolved trades and is up $109,570, with a 21-point edge over implied odds.
  • They added $4,549 to No across two buys, increasing an existing No position in a relatively low-activity market.
  • The wallet has traded across 26 events, suggesting an experienced and consistent market thesis rather than a one-off wager.

$4,549 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Serial event trader backs No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 137 resolved bets is making a concentrated No position alongside four other markets in the same event.

  • This bettor is up $488,362 with a 70% win rate across 137 resolved bets.
  • They placed $1,470 on No in a thin $3,034 market and are also positioned across five markets in this event.
  • The No entry at 82¢ implies an 18% chance of a qualifying airspace closure, with the market now at 84¢.

$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $74,554 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x4354...89a9 — Yes, $11,890
  3. 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $9,991 (53% win rate)
  4. 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $9,332 (41% win rate)
  5. 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $7,601 (85% win rate)
  6. 0xcb01...ead3 — Yes, $5,000 (11% win rate)
  7. 0x0ef7...9ae8 — Yes, $5,000
  8. 0x47ff...7ccb — Yes, $4,900 (24% win rate)
  9. 0xc6a2...821f — Yes, $4,181
  10. 0xee67...67a6 — Yes, $3,600

Related Theses

Temporary ceasefire by July 31

Covers 4 related markets

Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses

Covers 3 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Iran blockade ends in September, not August

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 8 related markets

No early June deal

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 3 related markets

Iran closes airspace imminently

Covers 5 related markets

Israel airspace closes June 8-9

Covers 8 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

Israel closes its airspace by...?$9,173 tracked3 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

2026-07-19 19:56 UTC

$3,154 on No at 83¢

83¢→100¢↑17¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

2026-07-19 16:29 UTC

$4,549 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

2026-07-18 21:05 UTC

$1,470 on No at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

Related Theses

Temporary ceasefire by July 31
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 4 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 3 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
No Iran deal by June
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 8 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran blockade ends in September, not August
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 5 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 5 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 8 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
No early June deal
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 2 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 3 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran closes airspace imminently
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 5 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Israel airspace closes June 8-9
Wallet_0xbd047 trades 8 related markets
Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …