Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by July 24, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure must broadly suspend, cancel, or stop commercial flights across all or most of Israeli civilian airspace; the market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Smart money tracking currently shows $3,154 across one signal, with recent activity favoring No.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,173.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into No

A proven high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $3,154 to an existing No position at 83¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $109,593 lifetime.
  • They added $3,154 to an existing No position, bringing their total exposure to more than $11,500.
  • The wallet has traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.

$3,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Proven bettor scaling into No

A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge added $4,549 to No in a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of 37 resolved trades and is up $109,570, with a 21-point edge over implied odds.
  • They added $4,549 to No across two buys, increasing an existing No position in a relatively low-activity market.
  • The wallet has traded across 26 events, suggesting an experienced and consistent market thesis rather than a one-off wager.

$4,549 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial event trader backs No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 137 resolved bets is making a concentrated No position alongside four other markets in the same event.

  • This bettor is up $488,362 with a 70% win rate across 137 resolved bets.
  • They placed $1,470 on No in a thin $3,034 market and are also positioned across five markets in this event.
  • The No entry at 82¢ implies an 18% chance of a qualifying airspace closure, with the market now at 84¢.

$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 52297037, $74,554 (66% win rate)
  2. 0x4354...89a9 Outcome 52297037, $11,890
  3. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 52297037, $9,991 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x6a83...4c59 Outcome 52297037, $9,332 (41% win rate)
  5. 0x8c66...44f3 Outcome 52297037, $7,601 (84% win rate)
  6. 0x758c...074a Outcome 52297037, $5,257 (14% win rate)
  7. 0xcb01...ead3 Outcome 52297037, $5,000 (6% win rate)
  8. 0x0ef7...9ae8 Outcome 52297037, $5,000
  9. 0x47ff...7ccb Outcome 52297037, $4,900 (24% win rate)
  10. 0xc6a2...821f Outcome 52297037, $4,181

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 8 related markets

Israel will keep airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

No US-Iran talks soon

Covers 2 related markets

Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end

Covers 3 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 3 related markets

Iran closes airspace imminently

Covers 5 related markets

No early June deal

Covers 2 related markets

Israel’s airspace briefly closes

Covers 7 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

2dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$9,173 tracked3 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
100¢
90¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

8d ago

$3,154 on No at 83¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

8d ago

$4,549 on No at 79¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

9d ago

$1,470 on No at 82¢

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June
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No Iran deal by June
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Israel will keep airspace open
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No early June deal
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Israel’s airspace briefly closes
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