Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,173.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into No
A proven high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $3,154 to an existing No position at 83¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $109,593 lifetime.
- They added $3,154 to an existing No position, bringing their total exposure to more than $11,500.
- The wallet has traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$3,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge added $4,549 to No in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 84% of 37 resolved trades and is up $109,570, with a 21-point edge over implied odds.
- They added $4,549 to No across two buys, increasing an existing No position in a relatively low-activity market.
- The wallet has traded across 26 events, suggesting an experienced and consistent market thesis rather than a one-off wager.
$4,549 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Serial event trader backs No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 137 resolved bets is making a concentrated No position alongside four other markets in the same event.
- This bettor is up $488,362 with a 70% win rate across 137 resolved bets.
- They placed $1,470 on No in a thin $3,034 market and are also positioned across five markets in this event.
- The No entry at 82¢ implies an 18% chance of a qualifying airspace closure, with the market now at 84¢.
$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $74,554 (71% win rate)
- 0x4354...89a9 — Yes, $11,890
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $9,991 (53% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $9,332 (41% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $7,601 (85% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Yes, $5,000 (11% win rate)
- 0x0ef7...9ae8 — Yes, $5,000
- 0x47ff...7ccb — Yes, $4,900 (24% win rate)
- 0xc6a2...821f — Yes, $4,181
- 0xee67...67a6 — Yes, $3,600
Related Theses
Temporary ceasefire by July 31
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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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No Iran deal by June
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Iran blockade ends in September, not August
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran deal by mid-June
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No early June deal
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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Iran closes airspace imminently
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Israel airspace closes June 8-9
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