Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,173.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into No
A proven high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $3,154 to an existing No position at 83¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $109,593 lifetime.
- They added $3,154 to an existing No position, bringing their total exposure to more than $11,500.
- The wallet has traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$3,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge added $4,549 to No in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 84% of 37 resolved trades and is up $109,570, with a 21-point edge over implied odds.
- They added $4,549 to No across two buys, increasing an existing No position in a relatively low-activity market.
- The wallet has traded across 26 events, suggesting an experienced and consistent market thesis rather than a one-off wager.
$4,549 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Serial event trader backs No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 137 resolved bets is making a concentrated No position alongside four other markets in the same event.
- This bettor is up $488,362 with a 70% win rate across 137 resolved bets.
- They placed $1,470 on No in a thin $3,034 market and are also positioned across five markets in this event.
- The No entry at 82¢ implies an 18% chance of a qualifying airspace closure, with the market now at 84¢.
$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 52297037, $74,554 (71% win rate)
- 0x4354...89a9 — Outcome 52297037, $11,890
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 52297037, $9,991 (52% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Outcome 52297037, $9,332 (41% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 52297037, $7,601 (83% win rate)
- 0x758c...074a — Outcome 52297037, $5,257 (14% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 52297037, $5,000 (6% win rate)
- 0x0ef7...9ae8 — Outcome 52297037, $5,000
- 0x47ff...7ccb — Outcome 52297037, $4,900 (24% win rate)
- 0xc6a2...821f — Outcome 52297037, $4,181
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
No Iran deal by June
Covers 8 related markets
Temporary ceasefire by July 31
Covers 4 related markets
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
Covers 3 related markets
Iran blockade ends in September, not August
Covers 5 related markets
Ceasefire briefly extends into August
Covers 4 related markets
Israel airspace closes June 8-9
Covers 8 related markets
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Covers 3 related markets
No early June deal
Covers 2 related markets
