Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by July 24, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure must broadly suspend, cancel, or stop commercial flights across all or most of Israeli civilian airspace; the market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Smart money tracking currently shows $3,154 across one signal, with recent activity favoring No.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,173.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into No
A proven high-volume bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $3,154 to an existing No position at 83¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $109,593 lifetime.
- They added $3,154 to an existing No position, bringing their total exposure to more than $11,500.
- The wallet has traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$3,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge added $4,549 to No in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 84% of 37 resolved trades and is up $109,570, with a 21-point edge over implied odds.
- They added $4,549 to No across two buys, increasing an existing No position in a relatively low-activity market.
- The wallet has traded across 26 events, suggesting an experienced and consistent market thesis rather than a one-off wager.
$4,549 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial event trader backs No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 137 resolved bets is making a concentrated No position alongside four other markets in the same event.
- This bettor is up $488,362 with a 70% win rate across 137 resolved bets.
- They placed $1,470 on No in a thin $3,034 market and are also positioned across five markets in this event.
- The No entry at 82¢ implies an 18% chance of a qualifying airspace closure, with the market now at 84¢.
$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 52297037, $74,554 (66% win rate)
- 0x4354...89a9 — Outcome 52297037, $11,890
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 52297037, $9,991 (57% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Outcome 52297037, $9,332 (41% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 52297037, $7,601 (84% win rate)
- 0x758c...074a — Outcome 52297037, $5,257 (14% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 52297037, $5,000 (6% win rate)
- 0x0ef7...9ae8 — Outcome 52297037, $5,000
- 0x47ff...7ccb — Outcome 52297037, $4,900 (24% win rate)
- 0xc6a2...821f — Outcome 52297037, $4,181
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
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No Iran deal by June
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Israel will keep airspace open
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No US-Iran talks soon
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Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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Iran closes airspace imminently
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No early June deal
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Israel’s airspace briefly closes
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