Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

This prediction market tracks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 9 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights arriving, departing, or transiting; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,712 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,712.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.

  • This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
  • They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.

$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2c39...56dc No, $2,393 (56% win rate)
  2. 0x8c06...b98a Yes, $2,100 (55% win rate)
  3. 0xe168...e559 Yes, $1,621 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xd109...6fa0 No, $1,328 (74% win rate)
  5. 0x6436...da96 Yes, $1,160 (87% win rate)
  6. 0xcc26...32ca No, $887 (39% win rate)
  7. 0x93a9...0b88 No, $600 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xfe41...556c No, $476
  9. 0xff7c...b233 No, $446 (47% win rate)
  10. 0xb15f...e0d4 Yes, $400

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Iran deal by spring

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Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

6dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$1,712 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
41¢
No
60¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

1h ago

$1,712 on No at 52¢

52¢60¢8¢

Related Theses