Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,364.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor buys crash

Profitable wallet with a strong 85-bet history is taking a small contrarian Yes position after the market collapsed to 4¢.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 85 resolved bets and is up about $303K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 4¢ after a sharp selloff from the prior 38–72¢ range.
  • The stake is modest, but the entry implies a high-upside contrarian position.

$1,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Six-market event trader

A modest SELL No converts to a Yes bet, but it is notable because the wallet has built a much larger $57.9K cross-market thesis and the price moved in its direction.

  • This wallet has put $57.9K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, and Yes has already moved to about 17¢.
  • The market is liquid, but a 10-point rapid move against No adds momentum to the same direction.

$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

92% winner buying dip

A highly profitable 92% lifetime winner is buying Yes after a sharp selloff while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 related markets with $20.8K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying Yes at 38¢ after a steep drop implies they see the selloff as overdone.

$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 892 resolved bets and $360k lifetime profit is buying No across related airspace markets.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 892 resolved bets and $360,929 in lifetime profit.
  • They are active across related markets, with 34 prior cross-market events and $708,380 total traded in this pattern.
  • Buying No at 63¢ implies they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.

$1,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.

  • This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
  • They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.

$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 53230966, $95,275 (72% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 53230966, $31,792 (75% win rate)
  3. 0x8d4b...07cb Outcome 53230966, $27,913 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x5e1f...7828 Outcome 53230966, $21,870 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x7c7a...0d8b Outcome 53230966, $15,194 (14% win rate)
  6. 0x174b...5a55 Outcome 53230966, $5,454 (56% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 53230966, $5,157
  8. 0x9bd9...d4ec Outcome 53230966, $5,000
  9. 0x42a8...70a5 Outcome 53230966, $3,660 (12% win rate)
  10. 0x4ea6...b249 Outcome 53230966, $3,213 (36% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 8 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Israel airspace closures will be temporary

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal after mid-June

Covers 3 related markets

Iran closes airspace imminently

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closure comes early or late

Covers 3 related markets

No US-Iran talks soon

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 3 related markets

Trump lifts blockade by April

Covers 8 related markets

Israel’s airspace briefly closes

Covers 7 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$6,364 tracked5 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

49d ago

$1,128 on Yes at 4¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

49d ago

$1,088 on Yes at 13¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

50d ago

$1,254 on Yes at 38¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

50d ago

$1,182 on No at 63¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

50d ago

$1,712 on No at 52¢

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June
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No Iran deal by June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Israel airspace closures will be temporary
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Iran deal after mid-June
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Iran closes airspace imminently
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Iran closure comes early or late
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No US-Iran talks soon
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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Trump lifts blockade by April
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Israel’s airspace briefly closes
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Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …