Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
This prediction market tracks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 9 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights arriving, departing, or transiting; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,712 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,712.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.
- This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
- They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.
$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0x2c39...56dc — No, $2,393 (56% win rate)
- 0x8c06...b98a — Yes, $2,100 (55% win rate)
- 0xe168...e559 — Yes, $1,621 (79% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — No, $1,328 (74% win rate)
- 0x6436...da96 — Yes, $1,160 (87% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — No, $887 (39% win rate)
- 0x93a9...0b88 — No, $600 (100% win rate)
- 0xfe41...556c — No, $476
- 0xff7c...b233 — No, $446 (47% win rate)
- 0xb15f...e0d4 — Yes, $400
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