Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,364.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor buys crash
Profitable wallet with a strong 85-bet history is taking a small contrarian Yes position after the market collapsed to 4¢.
- This bettor has won 71% of 85 resolved bets and is up about $303K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 4¢ after a sharp selloff from the prior 38–72¢ range.
- The stake is modest, but the entry implies a high-upside contrarian position.
$1,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Six-market event trader
A modest SELL No converts to a Yes bet, but it is notable because the wallet has built a much larger $57.9K cross-market thesis and the price moved in its direction.
- This wallet has put $57.9K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, and Yes has already moved to about 17¢.
- The market is liquid, but a 10-point rapid move against No adds momentum to the same direction.
$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
92% winner buying dip
A highly profitable 92% lifetime winner is buying Yes after a sharp selloff while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $20.8K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 38¢ after a steep drop implies they see the selloff as overdone.
$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 892 resolved bets and $360k lifetime profit is buying No across related airspace markets.
- This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 892 resolved bets and $360,929 in lifetime profit.
- They are active across related markets, with 34 prior cross-market events and $708,380 total traded in this pattern.
- Buying No at 63¢ implies they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.
$1,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.
- This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
- They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.
$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 53230966, $95,275 (72% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 53230966, $31,792 (75% win rate)
- 0x8d4b...07cb — Outcome 53230966, $27,913 (44% win rate)
- 0x5e1f...7828 — Outcome 53230966, $21,870 (44% win rate)
- 0x7c7a...0d8b — Outcome 53230966, $15,194 (14% win rate)
- 0x174b...5a55 — Outcome 53230966, $5,454 (56% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 53230966, $5,157
- 0x9bd9...d4ec — Outcome 53230966, $5,000
- 0x42a8...70a5 — Outcome 53230966, $3,660 (12% win rate)
- 0x4ea6...b249 — Outcome 53230966, $3,213 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 8 related markets
No Iran deal by June
Covers 8 related markets
Israel airspace closures will be temporary
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal after mid-June
Covers 3 related markets
Iran closes airspace imminently
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closure comes early or late
Covers 3 related markets
No US-Iran talks soon
Covers 2 related markets
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Covers 3 related markets
Trump lifts blockade by April
Covers 8 related markets
Israel’s airspace briefly closes
Covers 7 related markets
