Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
This prediction market tracks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through August 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves “Yes” if no qualifying air strike or other defined military action occurs between the two countries; recent smart money activity includes traders scaling into both No and Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,969.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
92% serial trader adds to Yes
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding nearly $2,000 to an existing Yes position in a geopolitical ceasefire market.
- This bettor has won 92% of 60 resolved trades and is up $25,212.
- They are adding $1,969 to an existing Yes position across five markets tied to this event.
- The trade entered at 51¢ while Yes has since moved to 53%, suggesting modest market confirmation.
$1,969 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $50,217 (51% win rate)
- 0xbfdd...e70e — No, $35,279 (72% win rate)
- 0xe3cb...ac21 — No, $27,884 (65% win rate)
- 0xddf4...2680 — No, $19,501 (93% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $17,170 (57% win rate)
- 0x3b3d...b162 — No, $15,360
- 0x7bb3...2682 — Yes, $8,000 (51% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — Yes, $6,119 (48% win rate)
- 0x85a8...9281 — Yes, $3,842 (92% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $3,600 (49% win rate)
Related Theses
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 6 related markets
Houthis avoid Saudi attacks
Covers 1 related market
Spain will not win World Cup
Covers 1 related market
Hormuz traffic will remain high
Covers 1 related market
Israel-Iran ceasefire will collapse
Covers 2 related markets
Collignon will beat Tsitsipas
Covers 1 related market
Spain will advance
Covers 1 related market
Houthis will hit shipping
Covers 1 related market
