Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A “Yes” outcome requires an agreement clearly stating that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease; temporary ceasefires or vague agreements would not qualify. PolySpotter is tracking $1,509 in smart money activity, with a recent signal showing an 82% winner buying “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,509.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $2,451 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x2c26...a23c No, $1,251 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xbb09...c163 No, $1,000
  4. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $826 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xe7cb...d447 Yes, $700 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x1dd1...a156 Yes, $658 (53% win rate)
  7. 0x1834...051e Yes, $648
  8. 0x1a87...f151 Yes, $625
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $600 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x90f4...98e2 No, $412

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Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

45dIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$1,509 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollahPeace Deal
Yes
28¢
No
72¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
87¢
72¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

1h ago

$1,509 on No at 66¢

66¢72¢6¢

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