Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,604.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$2,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor buying No

Surfaced despite low composite score because the wallet has a strong resolved track record and is placing a meaningful $6.5k No bet.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $22.6k lifetime.
  • They put $6.5k on No at 89¢, backing the current favorite with meaningful size.
  • The wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting a recurring pattern of notable bets.

$6,511 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

93% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a related Israel-Iran peace market.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 41 resolved trades and is up $26.8K lifetime.
  • They bought $3.1K of No at 86¢, adding to a cross-market Israel-Iran thesis.
  • The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the wallet’s strong track record.

$3,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$3,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

91% winner buying No

A proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market at 78¢.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $890 on $3,988 invested.
  • They put $1,050 on No at 78¢, a meaningful add relative to their historical stake size.
  • Entry at 78¢ implies they see no permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by the deadline as strongly favored.

$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$3,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

91% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought No at 77¢ despite only a modest standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $609 lifetime.
  • They bought $2.6k of No at 77¢, implying confidence the peace deal does not happen by July 2026.
  • The market has moved 10 points toward Yes today, so this is a sharp bettor fading that move.

$2,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $3.3k of No in a relatively small geopolitics market and the price has already moved their way.

  • This bettor has 905 resolved trades and is up about $528k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 203 markets.
  • The $3.3k No buy was meaningful for this smaller market, and No has already moved from 73¢ to 76¢.

$3,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran blockade persists into 2027

Covers 10 related markets

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$27,604 tracked9 signalsGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollahPeace Deal
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-20 15:25 UTC

$2,128 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-19 22:19 UTC

$6,511 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-18 08:47 UTC

$3,148 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-16 14:13 UTC

$3,651 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-16 11:07 UTC

$1,050 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-15 19:19 UTC

$3,778 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-15 18:48 UTC

$2,566 on No at 77¢

77¢→100¢↑23¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-15 07:58 UTC

$3,264 on No at 73¢

73¢→100¢↑27¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2026-06-15 02:21 UTC

$1,509 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran blockade persists into 2027
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US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…