Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,604.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$2,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor buying No
Surfaced despite low composite score because the wallet has a strong resolved track record and is placing a meaningful $6.5k No bet.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $22.6k lifetime.
- They put $6.5k on No at 89¢, backing the current favorite with meaningful size.
- The wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting a recurring pattern of notable bets.
$6,511 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
93% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a related Israel-Iran peace market.
- This bettor has won 93% of 41 resolved trades and is up $26.8K lifetime.
- They bought $3.1K of No at 86¢, adding to a cross-market Israel-Iran thesis.
- The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the wallet’s strong track record.
$3,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$3,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
91% winner buying No
A proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market at 78¢.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $890 on $3,988 invested.
- They put $1,050 on No at 78¢, a meaningful add relative to their historical stake size.
- Entry at 78¢ implies they see no permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by the deadline as strongly favored.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$3,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
91% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought No at 77¢ despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $609 lifetime.
- They bought $2.6k of No at 77¢, implying confidence the peace deal does not happen by July 2026.
- The market has moved 10 points toward Yes today, so this is a sharp bettor fading that move.
$2,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $3.3k of No in a relatively small geopolitics market and the price has already moved their way.
- This bettor has 905 resolved trades and is up about $528k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 203 markets.
- The $3.3k No buy was meaningful for this smaller market, and No has already moved from 73¢ to 76¢.
$3,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran blockade persists into 2027
Covers 10 related markets
