Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,604.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$2,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor buying No
Surfaced despite low composite score because the wallet has a strong resolved track record and is placing a meaningful $6.5k No bet.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $22.6k lifetime.
- They put $6.5k on No at 89¢, backing the current favorite with meaningful size.
- The wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting a recurring pattern of notable bets.
$6,511 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
93% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a related Israel-Iran peace market.
- This bettor has won 93% of 41 resolved trades and is up $26.8K lifetime.
- They bought $3.1K of No at 86¢, adding to a cross-market Israel-Iran thesis.
- The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the wallet’s strong track record.
$3,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$3,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
91% winner buying No
A proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market at 78¢.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $890 on $3,988 invested.
- They put $1,050 on No at 78¢, a meaningful add relative to their historical stake size.
- Entry at 78¢ implies they see no permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by the deadline as strongly favored.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$3,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
91% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought No at 77¢ despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $609 lifetime.
- They bought $2.6k of No at 77¢, implying confidence the peace deal does not happen by July 2026.
- The market has moved 10 points toward Yes today, so this is a sharp bettor fading that move.
$2,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $3.3k of No in a relatively small geopolitics market and the price has already moved their way.
- This bettor has 905 resolved trades and is up about $528k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 203 markets.
- The $3.3k No buy was meaningful for this smaller market, and No has already moved from 73¢ to 76¢.
$3,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Outcome 57576180, $20,114 (68% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Outcome 57576180, $15,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xe1b5...8378 — Outcome 57576180, $8,000
- 0xaf46...8c1d — Outcome 57576180, $4,000 (45% win rate)
- 0xfbe2...490a — Outcome 57576180, $3,617
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 57576180, $3,500 (71% win rate)
- 0x6436...da96 — Outcome 57576180, $3,046 (88% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 57576180, $2,895 (52% win rate)
- 0x4728...6426 — Outcome 57576180, $2,687 (75% win rate)
- 0x8df9...468c — Outcome 57576180, $2,000 (44% win rate)
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran surrenders uranium in May
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