Part of: Starmer out by...?
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves office during that window, including if a resignation or removal is announced before the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $1,039 in smart money activity, with recent sharp political trader signals pointing to Yes-side buying.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
38 smart money signals detected, totaling $147,948.
Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World, uk
Notable Trades
80% winner adding Yes
Surface because the buyer has a large, profitable track record with an 80% win rate over 412 resolved bets, despite this being only a modest-sized trade.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $4.4K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 71¢, implying continued confidence despite the market already pricing Starmer’s exit as likely.
- The prior No exposure was tiny and closed, so this looks like a fresh Yes stance.
$1,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable 79% winner
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with 79% wins across 399 resolved bets bought Yes despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $4.2K lifetime.
- They bought $2.0K of Yes at 71¢ on a major UK politics market.
- Entry at 71¢ implies they still see room above the current leading odds.
$2,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial politics trader
Experienced cross-market political trader with a large positive lifetime P&L is taking a $9k bearish position on Starmer leaving by end-2026 as part of a broader 4-market event thesis.
- This bettor has traded 1,155 resolved markets and is up $144k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related markets with $28k total, suggesting a broader political thesis.
- Selling Yes at 71¢ converts to buying No at 29¢, fading a market that still prices Starmer’s exit at 70%.
$8,969 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Proven sharp buys YES
Surfacing because a proven profitable wallet with 79% wins across 396 resolved bets is buying Yes despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up about $4k lifetime.
- They have a large sample of 396 resolved trades, making the track record more meaningful.
- Entry at 72¢ implies they still see value in Starmer leaving before 2027.
$1,065 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with 75% win rate is taking a contrarian No position at 15¢.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,146 resolved trades and is up $165k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 96 events and $562k of flagged activity.
- They are buying No at 15¢ after Yes moved up sharply this week, implying a contrarian ~6.7x payoff if Starmer stays.
$1,597 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
85% winner fading Yes
Sharp wallet override: a proven 85% winner with positive lifetime P&L is fading the high-priced Yes side by selling at 86¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $4.4K lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 86¢, equivalent to buying No at 14¢.
- The market has already moved up 21 points this week, so this looks like a sharp fade of recent momentum.
$1,996 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial contrarian
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after Yes odds surged sharply.
- This bettor has won 67% of resolved trades and is up $202K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events with $2.8M total volume.
- They bought No at 13¢ after Yes jumped 20.5 points this week, taking the contrarian side.
$4,258 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
92% political sharp buying Yes
A highly profitable 92% win-rate political bettor is adding Yes exposure amid a sharp volume and price surge.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $272k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market political trader with 142 events and nearly $1.2M invested.
- The market is already moving hard, with Yes up 16 points today and volume running 12x normal.
$2,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
79% winner fading surge
A proven 79% winner is fading the recent Starmer-out surge by effectively buying No at 12¢, with a 26x volume spike adding context.
- This bettor has won 79% of 387 resolved trades and is up $3.4K lifetime.
- They are taking the contrarian side after Yes jumped 14 points today and 26 points this week.
- Market volume is running 26x above normal, suggesting this move is worth watching.
$2,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
92% political sharp buying Yes
Elite 92% win-rate political trader bought Yes before a sharp move higher amid a major volume spike and broader cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $272K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 79¢ before the market jumped to 90¢, showing strong timing on a fast-moving political market.
- The same wallet has traded 4 related markets with $37K in exposure, suggesting a broader Starmer-out thesis.
$1,781 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $96,900 (69% win rate)
- 0xce71...83bc — Yes, $42,112 (73% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $40,545 (72% win rate)
- 0xce61...9381 — No, $34,315
- 0x85b8...6b6a — Yes, $27,838 (64% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $23,688 (33% win rate)
- 0x61ea...bbf7 — Yes, $20,329 (42% win rate)
- 0x63d4...a2f1 — No, $20,034 (93% win rate)
- 0xb749...2a64 — No, $20,000
- 0xc4d1...8ce8 — Yes, $19,679 (69% win rate)
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