Part of: Starmer out by...?
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point from November 5, 2025 through December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if his resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,626 in smart money activity on this market, including recent sharp buying on Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
49 smart money signals detected, totaling $195,612.
Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World, uk
Notable Trades
Cross-market politics bettor
Surfacing because a high-volume political trader is adding to a cross-market Starmer thesis during a 75x volume spike, though their long-term hit rate is not especially strong.
- This trader is positioning across 3 related Starmer markets with over $20K in exposure.
- The buy came during a 75x volume spike versus this market’s normal activity.
- Entry at 77¢ is already slightly ahead, with the market now around 79¢.
$2,626 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume political bettor bought $17k of Yes while building a $59.5k cross-market Starmer thesis across six related markets.
- This bettor is up $1.94M lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
- They bought $17k of Yes at 79¢, a large trade versus recent market activity.
- They have built a $59.5k position across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer thesis.
$17,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Sharp cross-market politics bettor
Sharp cross-market political bettor with a 79% resolved win rate is buying Yes again after trading multiple related Starmer markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $56.9K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with $35.2K total exposure.
- A $5K buy at 77¢ suggests continued conviction that Starmer exits by end-2026.
$5,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Cross-market politics bettor
Surfacing because a high-volume political trader is adding to a cross-market Starmer thesis during a 75x volume spike, though their long-term hit rate is not especially strong.
- This trader is positioning across 3 related Starmer markets with over $20K in exposure.
- The buy came during a 75x volume spike versus this market’s normal activity.
- Entry at 77¢ is already slightly ahead, with the market now around 79¢.
$5,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on Starmer leaving by end-2026, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor has a 70% record across 71 resolved markets and is up about $292K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 50 events and 109 markets with $3.7M traded.
- Selling No at 25¢ is effectively buying Yes at 75¢, aligning with the market’s current bullish view.
$1,097 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side on Starmer leaving before end-2026, effectively buying No around 26¢ despite the market favoring Yes.
- This bettor has a strong long-term record: 68% wins across 1,275 resolved bets and +$260K lifetime profit.
- They trade across many related markets, with 157 events and $868K in prior cross-market volume.
- They are effectively taking the contrarian No side around 26¢ while the market prices Yes at 74%.
$3,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable serial politics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on Starmer leaving before end-2026.
- This bettor has won 70% of 71 resolved markets and is up $287K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 104 markets with $3.5M total volume.
- Selling No at 27¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 73¢, adding to the market’s recent upward momentum.
$3,918 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial politics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying No on Starmer leaving by end-2026, with a large track record and $253k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,174 resolved trades and is up $253k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 28¢, a ~3.6x payout if Starmer remains PM through 2026.
- This wallet frequently trades related markets, with 140 events and $764k total activity tracked.
$2,261 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable serial politics trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 67% win rate is buying Yes and appears to have flipped from a prior No stance.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,123 resolved trades and is up $222K lifetime.
- They bought $2.3K of Yes at 72¢ after previously closing a No position on this market.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market trader, with $715K deployed across 135 events.
$2,344 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable serial political trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 67% win rate over 1,123 resolved bets has flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes on a plausible UK politics market.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,123 resolved bets and is up $222K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 135 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.
- They previously closed a No position here and are now buying Yes at 72¢, signaling a directional flip.
$1,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $143,801 (72% win rate)
- 0x63d4...a2f1 — No, $20,034 (92% win rate)
- 0xc19d...865e — No, $18,740 (37% win rate)
- 0xe8ff...c93b — No, $13,919 (65% win rate)
- 0x4c01...3ffe — No, $11,000
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $10,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — No, $10,000 (59% win rate)
- 0x44fd...b634 — No, $8,104 (63% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — No, $8,020 (67% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $7,878 (77% win rate)
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