Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
This Polymarket asks whether President Trump, the US government, or the military will officially announce that military operations against Iran have ended by April 21, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a clear public statement confirming the operation has concluded; leaks, unnamed sources, or informal comments do not count. Traders use this market to follow real-time odds on a potential US-Iran de-escalation announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,203.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A historically profitable wallet with a 71% win rate is expressing a cross-market thesis across five related markets, and this trade translates to buying Yes at 26¢.
- This bettor has won 487 of 682 resolved trades and is up about $492k lifetime
- They are betting across 5 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis instead of a one-off punt
- This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 26¢, a low entry price in a market with solid liquidity and tight spreads
$1,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $29,120 (39% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $12,829 (71% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — No, $8,959 (67% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — No, $6,393 (48% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — No, $6,084 (42% win rate)
- 0xb11a...3ae9 — No, $5,840 (63% win rate)
- 0x5f45...a77a — No, $5,000 (62% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $4,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xc96b...5fe5 — No, $3,578
- 0x96ef...5523 — No, $3,485 (66% win rate)
