Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
38 smart money signals detected, totaling $193,974.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable event trader buying Yes
Surface this because a highly profitable, very active cross-market trader with 888 resolved bets bought a low-priced Yes in a geopolitics event and the position is already moving in their favor.
- This bettor has won 64% of 888 resolved bets and is up $1.37M lifetime
- They trade across related markets often — 53 markets across 38 events suggests a repeatable event-trading edge
- Bought Yes at 7¢ and the market is already at 11¢, showing early follow-through
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
88% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader with over $1.1M in realized P&L is taking a fresh cross-market position on a geopolitical event at just 8¢, making this a notable asymmetric bet worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They have traded 142 markets across 90 events, including 5 related markets in this same event
- Bought Yes at 8¢, a cheap high-upside position if they think official de-escalation is more likely than the market implies
$3,484 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven event trader buying No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and positive P&L is adding a meaningful No position in a politically news-driven market after a sharp move lower in Yes.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 65% of them, and is up $183.6k overall
- They trade across related markets at scale — 220 events and 313 markets suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 87¢ after Yes fell 14.5 points in a day, backing the view that an official end announcement is still unlikely
$3,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
88% winner adds cross-market thesis
A bettor with an 88% win rate and positive P&L is extending a cross-market thesis by buying No at 88¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market after a sharp drop in Yes odds.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $15.4k overall
- They are betting across 2 related markets on the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Buying No at 88¢ came after Yes fell 28.5 points in a day, reinforcing the market move in a major news-driven market
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp event-thesis bettor
A historically profitable wallet with a 74% win rate is building the same thesis across five related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a coordinated event view worth tracking.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $216k overall
- They have put $66k across 5 related Iran-operation markets, showing a clear event-wide view
- They bought No at 80¢ while this market was falling fast, backing the idea that no official end will be announced by April 21
$1,569 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
83% win-rate event bettor
A proven 83% win-rate trader is making a fresh event-wide bearish bet here, but this specific fill is less compelling than usual because it’s a small trade in a very liquid market and they have traded this market before.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 markets and has bet over $100k across 6 related markets in this event
- They bought No at 80¢, aligning with the market favorite after prices drifted lower for Yes over the past week
- This looks like a fresh re-entry on this market, but the $2.2k size is modest relative to the market’s $556k 24-hour volume
$2,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven trader buying No
A proven high-volume profitable trader with 887 resolved bets sold Yes at 26¢, which translates into a copyable BUY No around 74¢ in this market.
- This bettor has 887 resolved bets, wins 64% of the time, and is up $1.36M lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets and have put $110k into this event across 2 markets
- This sale of Yes at 26¢ equals buying No at 74¢, and the market still offers about 78¢ now
$4,171 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 867 resolved bets and nearly $300k in profit is pressing the same event thesis again by buying No at 79¢.
- This bettor has 867 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up about $296k
- They have traded 4 markets in this same event for nearly $30k, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 79¢ in a liquid market, signaling they see low odds of an official end-of-operations announcement by April 21
$1,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
88% winner, event thesis
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet is re-entering this Iran operations market as part of a broader 4-market event thesis, making the trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k lifetime
- They have put nearly $27.8k across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis instead of a one-off punt
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 26¢ in a liquid news-driven market, implying they see the end-of-operations odds as too low
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
This is a profitable serial cross-market trader with a very large history and $1.36M realized profit taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 64% of 887 resolved markets and is up $1.36M lifetime
- They have traded 52 related markets across 38 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach
- They bought Yes at 27¢ in a major geopolitics market, a price that implies they see the odds as meaningfully too low
$1,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 25506560, $59,694 (80% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 25506560, $58,414 (82% win rate)
- 0x9e5b...7796 — Outcome 25506560, $42,830
- 0x6b5a...b691 — Outcome 25506560, $30,000
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 25506560, $29,729 (43% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 25506560, $23,044 (69% win rate)
- 0xdc5f...abef — Outcome 25506560, $20,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 25506560, $16,931 (69% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 25506560, $8,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x9719...1cca — Outcome 25506560, $7,768
