Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
This Polymarket asks whether President Trump, the US government, or the military will publicly and officially announce that military operations against Iran have concluded by June 30, 2026. For the market to resolve Yes, the statement must clearly say the operation has ended; leaks, unnamed sources, or informal remarks do not count. Smart money activity on PolySpotter is currently modest, with $11,393 tracked across 1 signal.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $207,728.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
3-wallet Yes momentum cluster
Coordinated Yes buying by three profitable wallets coincided with a 79x volume spike and 21-point price move on a high-stakes geopolitical market.
- Three wallets bought $24K of Yes in the same burst, pushing the market up 21 percentage points.
- This normally quieter flow spiked to 79x its historical average, suggesting a coordinated thesis ahead of news.
- All three wallets are lifetime profitable, including one up $291K across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
$24,082 on Yes
Profitable cross-market Yes buyer
Profitable wallet flipped into Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp price move, with broader $44.5k cross-market positioning on the same event.
- This bettor is up about $283k lifetime despite a 44% hit rate, suggesting they size winning trades well.
- They are active across 6 related markets with about $44.5k positioned on this event.
- Yes jumped from their 63¢ entry to 78¢ as market volume spiked nearly 180x.
$2,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
81% cross-market Iran bettor
Proven 81% win-rate cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a larger $96k thesis across seven related Iran-operation markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 264 markets and is up $57k lifetime.
- They have built a $96k position across 7 related markets in this event, suggesting a clear thesis.
- Entry at 53¢ implies they see value despite the market falling 12% over the past week.
$6,791 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
84% winner in cross-market thesis
Strong copy-trade candidate: a highly profitable 84% winner is building a broader cross-market thesis on the same Iran operations event.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $410K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.3M deployed across 91 related markets.
- This is part of a broader event position: 5 markets and $47K tied to the same thesis.
$2,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
81% cross-market bettor buying YES
A proven 81% win-rate cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a much larger $95.6k thesis across seven related markets.
- This bettor has won 81% of 264 resolved trades and is up $57k lifetime.
- They have put $95.6k across 7 related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 47¢ comes after Yes fell 16% this week, so they are buying into weakness.
$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market No thesis across four related Iran-operation markets, with $54.9k total positioned and current market momentum supporting the direction.
- This bettor is up $26.7k lifetime and has positioned across 4 related markets in the same event.
- They have put $54.9k into this broader thesis, including $5.4k buying No here at 56¢.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 10.5 points today and 20 points this week.
$5,442 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
78% winner buying NO
A profitable bettor with a 78% record and strong odds-adjusted edge is buying No on a liquid politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is profitable across 49 positions.
- Their wins came at 46¢ average entry, suggesting they have beaten market odds by a wide margin.
- They bought nearly $3k of No at 50¢, betting the market is mispriced despite even odds.
$2,938 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial trader flips to NO
Serial cross-market trader with positive history is adding a fresh No position after previously closing a large Yes position, alongside $106k of related event exposure.
- This bettor has a 62% hit rate across 37 resolved markets and is up about $56.8k lifetime.
- They have traded 60 markets across 34 events, including $106.8k across 6 markets tied to this event.
- They previously closed a much larger Yes position here and is now buying No at 48¢ as the market has moved toward No over the past week.
$1,757 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,485 | Wallet win rate: 53%
84% winner buying Yes
Proven 84% winner with strong cross-market history is effectively buying Yes while already positioned across five related event markets.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $407K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.29M placed across 88 related-event markets.
- Selling No at 45¢ is effectively buying Yes at 55¢, despite Yes falling 18 points this week.
$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 66500024, $80,271 (65% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — Outcome 66500024, $64,500 (97% win rate)
- 0x0721...adf8 — Outcome 66500024, $56,537
- 0x770e...7640 — Outcome 66500024, $40,990 (23% win rate)
- 0x8e2d...631f — Outcome 66500024, $37,297
- 0xf792...e24d — Outcome 66500024, $35,000
- 0x15a3...f698 — Outcome 66500024, $19,186
- 0x6418...730c — Outcome 66500024, $12,620 (63% win rate)
- 0x5177...73e1 — Outcome 66500024, $10,616
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Outcome 66500024, $10,100 (60% win rate)
