Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $207,728.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
3-wallet Yes momentum cluster
Coordinated Yes buying by three profitable wallets coincided with a 79x volume spike and 21-point price move on a high-stakes geopolitical market.
- Three wallets bought $24K of Yes in the same burst, pushing the market up 21 percentage points.
- This normally quieter flow spiked to 79x its historical average, suggesting a coordinated thesis ahead of news.
- All three wallets are lifetime profitable, including one up $291K across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
$24,082 on Yes
Profitable cross-market Yes buyer
Profitable wallet flipped into Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp price move, with broader $44.5k cross-market positioning on the same event.
- This bettor is up about $283k lifetime despite a 44% hit rate, suggesting they size winning trades well.
- They are active across 6 related markets with about $44.5k positioned on this event.
- Yes jumped from their 63¢ entry to 78¢ as market volume spiked nearly 180x.
$2,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
81% cross-market Iran bettor
Proven 81% win-rate cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a larger $96k thesis across seven related Iran-operation markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 264 markets and is up $57k lifetime.
- They have built a $96k position across 7 related markets in this event, suggesting a clear thesis.
- Entry at 53¢ implies they see value despite the market falling 12% over the past week.
$6,791 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
84% winner in cross-market thesis
Strong copy-trade candidate: a highly profitable 84% winner is building a broader cross-market thesis on the same Iran operations event.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $410K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.3M deployed across 91 related markets.
- This is part of a broader event position: 5 markets and $47K tied to the same thesis.
$2,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% cross-market bettor buying YES
A proven 81% win-rate cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a much larger $95.6k thesis across seven related markets.
- This bettor has won 81% of 264 resolved trades and is up $57k lifetime.
- They have put $95.6k across 7 related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 47¢ comes after Yes fell 16% this week, so they are buying into weakness.
$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market No thesis across four related Iran-operation markets, with $54.9k total positioned and current market momentum supporting the direction.
- This bettor is up $26.7k lifetime and has positioned across 4 related markets in the same event.
- They have put $54.9k into this broader thesis, including $5.4k buying No here at 56¢.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 10.5 points today and 20 points this week.
$5,442 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
78% winner buying NO
A profitable bettor with a 78% record and strong odds-adjusted edge is buying No on a liquid politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is profitable across 49 positions.
- Their wins came at 46¢ average entry, suggesting they have beaten market odds by a wide margin.
- They bought nearly $3k of No at 50¢, betting the market is mispriced despite even odds.
$2,938 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial trader flips to NO
Serial cross-market trader with positive history is adding a fresh No position after previously closing a large Yes position, alongside $106k of related event exposure.
- This bettor has a 62% hit rate across 37 resolved markets and is up about $56.8k lifetime.
- They have traded 60 markets across 34 events, including $106.8k across 6 markets tied to this event.
- They previously closed a much larger Yes position here and is now buying No at 48¢ as the market has moved toward No over the past week.
$1,757 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,485 | Wallet win rate: 53%
84% winner buying Yes
Proven 84% winner with strong cross-market history is effectively buying Yes while already positioned across five related event markets.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $407K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.29M placed across 88 related-event markets.
- Selling No at 45¢ is effectively buying Yes at 55¢, despite Yes falling 18 points this week.
$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 66500024, $80,271 (70% win rate)
- 0x8cce...5c11 — Outcome 66500024, $64,500 (97% win rate)
- 0x0721...adf8 — Outcome 66500024, $56,537
- 0x770e...7640 — Outcome 66500024, $40,990 (25% win rate)
- 0x8e2d...631f — Outcome 66500024, $37,297
- 0xf792...e24d — Outcome 66500024, $35,000
- 0xaf15...5dd2 — Outcome 66500024, $23,693
- 0x15a3...f698 — Outcome 66500024, $19,186
- 0x5177...73e1 — Outcome 66500024, $10,616 (100% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Outcome 66500024, $10,100 (79% win rate)
