Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $91,288.

Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

An 88% win-rate serial cross-market trader just put $10k into No on a major geopolitics market, a pattern worth tracking despite the rich 87¢ entry.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 101 markets and has traded nearly $795k
  • They make repeated event-level bets across 77 events, which suggests a consistent macro thesis process
  • They bought No at 87¢, pricing this as a high-probability outcome in a major news-driven market

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

A proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate sold Yes at 19¢ on this Iran de-escalation market, extending a broader multi-market thesis across the same event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved markets and has tracked this event across 122 markets.
  • They sold Yes at 19¢, which is effectively a bet on No at an implied 81% chance.
  • The trader has put nearly $13k across 3 related markets in this event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$5,711 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

A 7-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed very large bets across the platform and just sold No at 81¢ on a major geopolitics market, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning rather than routine trading.

  • This 7-day-old wallet has already triggered 10 large-bet alerts with about $413k flagged total
  • They sold No at 81¢, which is effectively a bet on Yes around 19¢ before the market moved to 26¢
  • The trade is large at $53k, but still in a liquid geopolitics market with nearly $345k in 24-hour volume

$53,117 on Yes

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

A 12-wallet linked cluster is deploying meaningful capital on NO in a major geopolitics market, and this wallet entered with a concentrated $22.5k buy.

  • 12 linked wallets funded by the same address have been active together, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
  • This wallet put $22.5k on NO in a major geopolitics market with deep enough liquidity to take the bet seriously
  • The trade entered at 83¢, showing a high-confidence view that no official end-of-operations announcement will come by March 31

$22,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 10840458, $348,961 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xd57d...80d0 Outcome 10840458, $47,411 (81% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 10840458, $33,384 (86% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 10840458, $19,405 (85% win rate)
  5. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 10840458, $16,746 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x5ff8...54ad Outcome 10840458, $14,287
  7. 0x713f...d6dd Outcome 10840458, $9,000
  8. 0x3c59...1766 Outcome 10840458, $8,229 (70% win rate)
  9. 0xd426...334a Outcome 10840458, $7,000 (37% win rate)
  10. 0xeeb1...bf68 Outcome 10840458, $6,163

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

ResolvedTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?$91,288 tracked4 signalsPoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsTrumpIranUS-IranU.S. x IranDiplomacy & Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

43d ago

$10,000 on No at 87¢

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

45d ago

$5,711 on No at 81¢

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

45d ago

$53,117 on Yes at 19¢

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

46d ago

$22,460 on No at 83¢

Related Theses