Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current Yes/No prices were not included in the provided metadata; PolySpotter tracks $1,710 in smart-money activity and one recent signal showed a profitable bettor adding to No.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,710.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adds to No

A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $1,710 to an existing No position, though the alert has limited independent confirmation.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $110,123 lifetime.
  • They added $1,710 to an existing No position, raising total investment to about $4,710.
  • No has already risen from the 57¢ entry to 62¢, but the latest copy price should stay below 67¢.

$1,710 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $7,457 (49% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $4,927 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x4478...02a4 No, $4,000 (59% win rate)
  4. 0x8c66...44f3 No, $3,000 (84% win rate)
  5. 0x50b2...c94a Yes, $2,473
  6. 0x9ad0...bf3d Yes, $2,227
  7. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $1,858 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x94b0...9d34 Yes, $1,724
  9. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $1,573 (79% win rate)
  10. 0x63e3...f341 Yes, $1,099 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

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No early June deal

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US-Iran talks get extended

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Israel will close its airspace

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Bab el-Mandeb stays open through August

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US-Iran ceasefire will fail

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Iran will stay in negotiations

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Iranian blockade will continue

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Iran airspace closes briefly

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Trump makes selective Iran concessions

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

43dUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$1,710 tracked1 signalIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
38¢
No
63¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
64¢
50¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

7h ago

$1,710 on No at 57¢

57¢63¢6¢

Related Theses