Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by August 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Live market odds may change as traders react to developments; the market currently has $2,700 in tracked smart-money activity and one sharp-money alert.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,700.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

19-wallet sharp-money No cluster

A highly profitable serial trader is adding to a No position alongside 19 linked wallets, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market already pricing No at 90%.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 264 resolved trades and is up $186,649.
  • Nineteen linked wallets have bet the same direction, with $7,150 in identified cluster activity.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position across six markets in this event, reinforcing its conviction.

$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc84f...e0c5 Yes, $131,373 (88% win rate)
  2. 0x4699...e03c No, $114,178 (97% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Yes, $35,785 (67% win rate)
  4. 0x5ccf...79d7 Yes, $16,801 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xdbd0...8c1c Yes, $15,000 (11% win rate)
  6. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $13,483 (56% win rate)
  7. 0x690b...bd2c No, $10,450 (93% win rate)
  8. 0x7c3d...5c6b Yes, $10,355 (50% win rate)
  9. 0x49e9...8f85 No, $8,698 (97% win rate)
  10. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $6,413 (60% win rate)

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?

ResolvedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$2,700 tracked1 signalIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
101¢
90¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?

1d ago

$2,700 on No at 90¢

90¢99¢9¢

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