Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the United States will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market has $20,863 in tracked smart-money activity and one reported Yes conviction cluster; live Yes and No odds are shown on the market page.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $20,863.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Four-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Four wallets added $20.9K to Yes, including a serial cross-market trader and a 93% winner, though the positions largely add to existing exposure.

  • Four wallets added $20,863 to Yes at 80–82¢, pushing the market toward its recent 84% price.
  • The group includes a serial cross-market trader active across 121 events and a bettor with 93% wins across 14 resolved trades.
  • Most wallets already held Yes, so this is increased conviction rather than entirely fresh positioning; the market is also fairly liquid with $166,616 liquidity.

$20,863 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $41,460 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x551e...b0e0 No, $29,319 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xd5cc...dea4 Yes, $25,821 (72% win rate)
  4. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $21,658 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x9c26...74bc Yes, $21,601 (92% win rate)
  6. 0x6139...6b7a No, $16,670 (71% win rate)
  7. 0xf0d5...c665 No, $13,382 (93% win rate)
  8. 0x836f...906e Yes, $12,584 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x1104...002a Yes, $12,484 (57% win rate)
  10. 0xcf19...6402 No, $8,712 (58% win rate)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

129dUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$20,863 tracked1 signalIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
69¢
No
31¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “Yes
83¢
73¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

11d ago

$20,863 on Yes at 80¢

80¢69¢11¢