Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the US government will publicly announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by November 30, 2026. Current odds are not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $1,220 in smart money and one recent signal, from a serial trader adding to Yes.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,362.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Funded cluster backing a No thesis

A profitable, active cross-market trader is selling Yes alongside a seven-wallet funded cluster and coordinated positioning across nine markets, signaling a notable No thesis.

  • Seven linked wallets have put about $10,700 into this cluster, while the trader is selling Yes.
  • The trader is active across nine markets in the same event, representing about $129,847 in activity.
  • This wallet is up $275,000 lifetime, though its 66% win rate and high average winning price do not alone prove a strong edge.

$4,248 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

New wallet taking a sizable No position

A repeat-betting new wallet sold about $5.4k of Yes amid a 136x volume spike, signaling a notable No position despite no resolved track record.

  • The wallet sold about $5.4k of Yes, equivalent to buying No at 72¢.
  • Trading activity was 136x the market’s historical average, though this wallet has no resolved bets to verify its accuracy.

$5,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Three-wallet cluster adds $34K to No

Three wallets bought $34.4K of No together, led by a $30K addition to an already large position, alongside a 48x volume spike and repeated cross-market positioning.

  • Three wallets bought No at nearly the same time, with one adding $30K to an existing $41.7K position.
  • The trades coincide with a 48x historical volume spike and a 7% daily decline in Yes odds.
  • One wallet has bet across 10 markets in this event, with a reported 72% win rate.

$34,372 on No

Funded cluster with broad event positioning

Seven wallets sharing a funder and substantial cross-market positioning make this small Yes-side trade worth watching, despite no clear edge from the wallet's win rate alone.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder have positioned on this market, with linked activity growing across prior scans.
  • The trader has a long profitable history—$259K P&L across 322 resolved bets—and has traded nine markets in this event.
  • The trade converts to buying Yes at 23¢, implying the trader favors an end to the blockade by the deadline.

$1,062 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with a substantial sample and serial cross-market activity is selling Yes, corresponding to a No position at 77¢.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 145 resolved bets and is up $141,241.
  • They trade across 162 events, and this alert corresponds to betting No at 77¢.

$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Linked cluster backing a serial event trader

A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader is betting No alongside a seven-wallet linked cluster and substantial positioning across the same event.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, with about $1,529 in detected bets.
  • The trader has placed about $140,000 across nine markets in this event and is up $183,712 lifetime.
  • The trader bought No at 76¢; the market currently prices No at about 76¢.

$1,529 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable serial trader adding to Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 49¢.

  • This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $106,636 across 110 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,220 to an existing Yes position, with $6,588 already invested in the outcome.
  • The wallet has traded across 123 events, and its entry was 49¢ while the market is near 47%.

$1,220 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc4c8...cabb — Yes, $210,050 (25% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $50,249 (60% win rate)
  3. 0x9e72...99c4 — No, $41,658 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xff1e...5e2d — No, $40,043 (98% win rate)
  5. 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $20,648 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x12d6...f2a8 — No, $16,888 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $15,462 (53% win rate)
  8. 0xaa57...3991 — Yes, $13,195 (67% win rate)
  9. 0x5e73...6697 — Yes, $8,309 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $8,296 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran ceasefire holds through December

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Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

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Ceasefire holds through August

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Neither party controls the Senate

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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

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Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

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Fed will hike rates 25 bps

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Viborg will beat Lyngby

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$49,362 tracked7 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
27¢
No
74¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No”
81¢
73¢
65¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-11-02 19:24 UTC

$4,248 on No at 65¢

65¢→74¢↑9¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-10-28 22:00 UTC

$5,446 on No at 72¢

72¢→74¢↑2¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-11-01 10:12 UTC

$34,372 on No at 72¢

72¢→74¢↑2¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-10-28 17:59 UTC

$1,062 on Yes at 23¢

23¢→27¢↑4¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-10-24 23:56 UTC

$1,485 on No at 77¢

77¢→74¢↓3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-10-11 02:02 UTC

$1,529 on No at 76¢

76¢→74¢↓2¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

2026-09-30 21:16 UTC

$1,220 on Yes at 49¢

49¢→27¢↓22¢

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