Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market tracks smart-money activity, including trades from profitable and high win-rate bettors, with $7,257 in smart money currently tracked.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,816.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable wallets scaling into Yes
Three consistently profitable wallets are adding $7,257 to existing Yes positions while expressing the same thesis across six related markets.
- Three wallets with 73%–85% win rates added $7,257 to Yes, rather than making isolated bets.
- They already held roughly $38,800 in Yes positions, signaling increased conviction despite the market’s 25% weekly decline.
- The wallets have positioned $71,311 across six related markets, providing broader support for the thesis.
$7,439 on Yes
Sharp bettor buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 76% win rate is taking a fresh No position in a politically consequential market after Yes has fallen sharply.
- This bettor has won 76% of 349 resolved trades and earned about $918,000 in profit.
- They are positioning No at 31¢ across a six-market Iran blockade thesis, while Yes has fallen 23% over the past week.
- The $1,855 trade is a fresh directional bet in a liquid political market, not routine position management.
$1,745 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
92% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven bettor with a 92% win rate and $1.64 million in profit made a fresh $2,777 Yes bet at 65 cents.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades, with 584 wins out of 633 and $1.64 million in profit.
- The 65¢ Yes entry is a fresh $2,777 position from a trader active across 680 markets and 440 events.
- Their historical average winning entry is about 57%, making this 65¢ purchase a strong conviction signal despite the market’s already-positive odds.
$2,777 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp bettor buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 76% win rate is taking a fresh No position in a politically consequential market after Yes has fallen sharply.
- This bettor has won 76% of 349 resolved trades and earned about $918,000 in profit.
- They are positioning No at 31¢ across a six-market Iran blockade thesis, while Yes has fallen 23% over the past week.
- The $1,855 trade is a fresh directional bet in a liquid political market, not routine position management.
$1,855 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $23,303 (69% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $22,176 (71% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $18,044 (67% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $17,058 (80% win rate)
- 0x8b88...5f5e — Yes, $15,493 (85% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — Yes, $13,270 (67% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $12,660 (59% win rate)
- 0x35bb...009b — Yes, $12,375 (73% win rate)
- 0x551e...b0e0 — No, $7,787 (71% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $7,157 (73% win rate)
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